The Democratic Primary Election, contd.

The Democratic Primary Election, contd.

Getting out the vote

State election board data shows counties that were considered to be Edmondson’s base had below average turnout in the primary, while Counties considered to be Askins base had an above average turnout.

In order to measure how “Get Out the Vote” campaigns effected the primary, SoonerPoll commissioned and conducted a poll of 450 registered Democrats who voted in the July 27th primary and 401 registered Democrats who were likely to vote in the July 27th primary but did not vote.

Of all those who voted in the primary, 58 percent said they received no contact from the Edmondson campaign while only 50 percent said they received no contact from the Askins campaign.

Complete Results and Analysis

When asked about whether they received mail from one of the candidates 36 percent said they had received mail from Askins, compared to only 30 percent from Edmondson.  The same was true when voters were asked about recorded calls, 25 percent said they had received a call from the Askins campaign, while only 20 percent received a call from the Edmondson campaign.

When the probability of voter turnout is analyzed through a binary logistic regression model, associations between the Askins campaign contact tactics of mail pieces, live phone calls and literature and voting was identified. Neither contacts by the Edmondson campaign or historic controls for voter participation — age, income, education — were statistically significant.

“The three contacting methods identified in the regression model were more effective in mobilizing voter turnout than any other contacting methods used by either Askins or Edmondson,“ Ryan Nelson, Senior Research Analyst at SoonerPoll, said.

The Oklahoma Gazette reported immediately after the July primary on the Askins’ “Get Out the Vote” [GOTV] strategy. The strategy was based in part on selective targeting and mobilization of voters in areas where Askins or her legislative allies were deemed politically-strong, and also on an aggressive ground game that used personal contacting, mail, phones, and literature to mobilize select voters.

“Around the margins, it was the Askins ground game and GOTV effort that drove the shape of the electorate in a low-turnout primary,” Dr. Keith Gaddie, Vice-President of SoonerPoll, observed.