Authors Posts by Madison Grady

Madison Grady

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He may be the state’s newest statewide elected official, but Oklahoma’s junior United States senator, James Lankford, leads the state in favorability among the state’s current and most well-known statewide elected officials, according to the most recent SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll.

The favorability index is calculated by standardizing the mean score of the survey’s standard five-point likert scale of ‘very favorable’ to “very unfavorable,” less those who had no opinion of that particular individual.

favorability

President Barack Obama, the only Democrat, trailed severely in a field of Republicans with only 27.6 percent combined favorable and 69.6 percent combined unfavorable.  This particular result ranks near the bottom since SoonerPoll began polling the president’s favorables in April, 2009.

Lt. Governor Todd Lamb was second behind Lankford but, interestingly, was the least known of those tested with the highest percentage, 33.5%, of Oklahoma likely voters who did not have an opinion or know of him.

U.S. Senator Jim Inhofe, who been in statewide elective office the longest of those scored, edged out Attorney General Scott Pruitt for the next spot.  Pruitt was not known by 27 percent of the electorate, while only 7.7 percent for Inhofe.  Lamb and Pruitt are thought to be top gubernatorial candidates in 2018.

Trailing the field of Republicans was Governor Mary Fallin whose combined unfavorable was slightly more than one-in-three likely voters at 35.1 percent.  Fallin’s favorability has been an issue for her since right before the 2014 election and has continued since.  She was also the most well-known statewide official tested with only 2 percent having no opinion.

 

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll.

The scientific study was conducted from September 1-15, 2015 with 403 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a dual frame of both landline telephone and cell phones. The sample was weighted by political party and age in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a general election.

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 4.88 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

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Immigration is perhaps one of the most difficult issues our country faces, and when listening to likely voters it is easy to see why.

According to the most recent SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll, the state’s likely voters are near equally divided over whether to identify and deport all immigrants who have come here illegally or allow them to stay and eventually become citizens if they pay a fine and meet certain requirements over a period of time.

Forty-nine percent of likely voting Oklahomans favor a path to citizenship for immigrants who have come here illegally, while 44 percent support deportation.  These results are within the margin of error for the poll, which was 4.88 percent.

The four point differential run somewhat contrary to the views of voters nationwide, who favor a path to citizenship by roughly fifteen to thirty points or more.

“Immigration has been a much talked about issue among the Republican presidential candidates so far in this election,” said Bill Shapard, CEO of SoonerPoll, who went on to note the leading Republican, Donald Trump, has made very controversial remarks, according to some news reports, regarding immigration.

“For about half of likely voting Oklahomans he [Trump] is saying just what they want to hear, and Republicans even trust him more on the issue than the other Republican candidates.”

Fifty-two percent of Republicans support deportation, but 41 percent support a path to citizenship.  For Democrats, 58 percent support citizenship with requirements, but one-in-three (33.9) percent believe immigrants here illegally should be deported.  Independents more closely mirrored Democrats with 40 percent in favor of deportation and 50 percent in favor of eventual citizenship.

“I think both parties in the state will be shocked by these poll results,” Shapard said.  “Republicans will be shocked to hear that four out of ten Republicans in the state support a path to citizenship, and the Democrats will be shocked to know that one-in-three in their party supports deportation.”

Now, thinking about immigration, which comes closest to you view about what government policy should be toward immigrants currently residing in the United States who have come here illegally? [READ AND ROTATE STATEMENTS]

The federal government should identify and deport all immigrants who have come here illegally back to their home country, or we should allow immigrants who came here illegally to remain and eventually become U.S. citizens but only if they pay a fine and meet certain requirements over a period of time.

1. Identify and deport 44.0
2. Remain and eventually become citizens after fine and… 48.7
3. Don’t know/Refused [DNR] 7.3

Support for deportation starts at 23 percent among those who identify themselves as “very liberal” and increases along the ideological scale to one-in-three self-identified moderates and ends at 60 percent among the “very conservative.”  Conversely, support for citizenship begins at 65 percent among the “very liberal, then to 56 percent and 36 percent among moderates and the “very conservative” respectively.

Poll results among urban and rural voters were similar to the overall results, but men and women varied in their views of immigration.  Fifty-two percent of men believe immigrants here illegally should be deported but only 37 percent of women, while 54 percent of women supported a path to citizenship and only 42 percent of men.

Evangelicals, or those who believe in a more strict interpretation of the Bible, were 10 points more likely to support deportation.

 

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll.

The scientific study was conducted from September 1-15, 2015 with 403 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a dual frame of both landline telephone and cell phones. The sample was weighted by political party and age in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a general election.

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 4.88 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

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The support to expand the sale of wine and strong beer into grocery stores has been growing for some time in the state, but many Oklahomans see some real problems with the actual costs of such convenience, according to findings of a scientific poll conducted by SoonerPoll.com.

The greatest concern among likely Oklahoma voters is the access teens or underage employees of grocery stores would have in handling and selling wine or strong beer, with 42 percent very concerned and 58 percent both very and somewhat concerned.

Oklahomans also expressed concern with the increased enforcement challenges of the state’s liquor laws and age restrictions when expanding to more than 4000 grocery and convenience stores in the state, with 40 percent very concerned and a total of 56 percent very and somewhat concerned.

“At this point, Oklahomans are still trying to reconcile their desire to have more convenience with the potential costs to public safety as a whole,” said Bill Shapard, CEO of SoonerPoll.  “And, they’re having real concerns with the potential problems and impact of expanding access in the state of an age restricted product.”

 How concerned or unconcerned are you that teens or those underage would be working in these stores and handling and selling wine or strong beer?

1. Very concerned 42.2
2. Somewhat concerned 16.2
COMBINED CONCERN 58.4
3. Don’t know/No opinion/Refused [DNR] 3.6
4. Somewhat unconcerned 15.8
5. Very unconcerned 22.2

Additional poll results showed 52 percent of likely Oklahoma voters agreed that selling wine and strong beer in grocery and convenience stores will increase access, thereby allowing more teens or those underage to gain greater access.  Forty-two percent disagreed and six percent had no opinion.

Also, 51 percent agreed that selling wine and strong beer in grocery and convenience stores would increase alcohol-related injuries and deaths on Oklahoma’s roads and highways by intoxicated drivers.  Forty-five percent disagreed and five percent had no opinion.

“Oklahomans are wanting some changes to the current alcohol laws,” said Shapard.  “But, it’s evident that the changes need to be sensible because voters recognize the real potential problems of having too much alcohol in too many places.”

 

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s only independent, non-partisan polling firm, conducted the poll among likely voters in the state.  The poll was commissioned by the Retail Liquor Association of Oklahoma.

The scientific study was conducted from June 18-24, 2015 with 412 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a dual frame of both landline telephone and cell phones. The sample was weighted by political party and age in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a general election.

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 4.8 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

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AAPOR TI_CharterMemberThe American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) announced today that SoonerPoll has been named a charter member of the Transparency Initiative (TI), a project developed to encourage broader and more effective disclosure of research methods by all organizations.

The goal of the Transparency Initiative is to promote methodological disclosure through a proactive, educational approach that assists survey organizations in developing simple and efficient means for routinely disclosing the research methods associated with their publicly-released studies.

SoonerPoll, Oklahoma’s only independent, non-partisan public opinion polling firm, has been conducting polling in the state of Oklahoma since 2004, and last year was recognized as the best pollster in the state and in the top ten percent of the best polling firms in the nation by Nate Silver’s 538.

“We believe you and your organization are providing a strong example to others as a ‘good citizen’ who values and practices openness and transparency,” said Mollyann Brodie, President of AAPOR, who went on to applaud SoonerPoll’s voluntary commitment to abide by the disclosure standards in the AAPOR Code of Professional Ethics and Practices.

Starting in 2015, SoonerPoll begin releasing a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report with every publicly released poll, an advanced level of transparency that no other pollster in Oklahoma publicly provides.

As a charter member, SoonerPoll joins other firms such as Pew Research, Gallup, The Washington Post, and college-based polling operations such as Quinnipiac, Siena and Muhlenberg College, as well as universities such as Temple, Indiana, Winthrop, Rutgers, Illinois, Vanderbilt and the University of Chicago.

“We are very honored to become a charter member of the Transparency Initiative,” said Bill Shapard, CEO of SoonerPoll.  “We believe transparency is important to the public and our industry as whole, and we will continue to look for ways to innovate and remain the best polling firm in the state.”

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Nationwide, law enforcement has been under attack.  From the death of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri to Freddie Gray in Baltimore, many have questioned the police and their ability to protect and serve their communities.

In Oklahoma from the lastest SoonerPoll, an overwhelming 81 percent of likely voters viewed this local police or sheriff’s department as favorable, with 55 percent rating them as “very favorable.”  Only 15 percent rated their local law enforcement unfavorably.

Voters were also asked to evaluate their local law enforcement from excellent to poor in four distinct attributes: protecting people from crime, using the right amount of force for each situation, treating racial and ethnic groups equally, and holding officers accountable when misconduct occurs.

Very few differences was observed among the four evaluations with a plurality evaluating their local police as “good” in all four measurements.  Just under one-in-three likely voters believed their local police were doing an excellent job in all four evaluations.

In “protecting people from crime,” for example, 30 percent rated the police as excellent, 42 percent as good, 22 percent as fair and only 5 percent as poor.  Republicans were more likely by 6 points to rate the police as excellent than Democrats or Independents.  Liberals were less likely to evaluate their local police or sheriff’s department as excellent (25% compared to 34% for very conservatives), but only slightly more likely to rate as poor (6 percent compared to 4% for very conservatives).  No statistical differences were observed among voters in various parts of the state, age groups, or income and education subsets.

 I’m going to read to you several law enforcement attributes. For each one, please tell me how you would evaluate the local police or sheriff’s department in your area.

Protecting people from crime:

1. Excellent 30.5
2. Good 41.7
COMBINED EXCELLENT AND GOOD 72.2
3. Fair 21.9
4. Poor 5.4
5. Don’t know/Refused [DNR] 0.5

Oklahoma is not without its own tragic cases.  In April of this year, Eric Harris was killed during an undercover weapons sting operation by the Tulsa County sheriff’s office when a reserve deputy pulled his revolver rather than his taser.

When voters were asked to evaluate the police on “using the right amount of force for each situation,” 30 percent rated them as excellent and another 44 percent as good.  Only 9 percent believed their local police were doing a poor job.

These results in Oklahoma run contrary to a national poll conducted in August 2014, that found Americans by 2-to-1 say police departments nationwide don’t do a good job in holding officers accountable for misconduct, treating racial groups equally and using the right amount of force. It should be noted that these national results polled the general public at the peak of the Michael Brown controversy in Ferguson, and the SoonerPoll is from a population of likely voters.

With regard to “treating racial and ethnic groups equally,” likely voters believed their local police or sheriff’s office was doing a good job, with 31 percent rating them as excellent and 41 percent as good.  Thirty-eight (38) percent of African-American voters rated their police as poor, but one-in-five (19.3%) rated them as excellent and a plurality (42%) rated them as good.  It should be noted that the sample size is small for African-Americans who only comprise about 8 percent of the electorate in Oklahoma, and the margin of error for this subset is extremely high.

Last year, an Oklahoma Highway patrolman and an Oklahoma City police officer were accused of sexual assault in high profile cases.

When asked to evaluate law enforcement on “holding officers accountable when misconduct occurs,” voters were only slightly less likely to give high marks.  Thirty-four (34) percent rated them as excellent and 37 percent as good, which was the lowest rating of the four attributes tested although not by much.  Again, Republicans were slightly more likely to give an excellent rating than Democrats, 38 percent to 34 percent respectively.

Next week, Governor Fallin is spearheading a “Back the Blue” rally at the state capitol to offer support and thanks to law enforcement agencies and officers in the state.

 

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll.

The scientific study was conducted from September 1-15, 2015 with 403 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a dual frame of both landline telephone and cell phones. The sample was weighted by political party and age in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a general election.

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 4.88 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

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The most recent quarterly poll conducted by SoonerPoll finds that Oklahomans support strengthening child vaccination laws by repealing the personal, philosophical and religious exemptions to the current law.

Current Oklahoma law requires mandatory immunizations for children entering childcare facilities and schools with three exemptions, which are the accommodation of religious beliefs, personal or philosophical reasons, and medical reasons.  The law provides for no additional requirements other than a signature from the parent with a declaration of either the religious or personal/philosophical reason.  For the medical exemption, parents need a physician’s signature.

Fifty-six percent of likely Oklahoma voters support repealing the religious exemption and a near equal number (55.7%) support repealing the personal/philosophical exemption, including 58.6 percent of Republicans, 52 percent of Democrats, and 67.5 percent of Independents.

 Current Oklahoma law requires mandatory immunizations for children entering childcare facilities and schools with THREE exemptions, the accommodation of religious beliefs, personal or philosophical reasons, and medical reasons.  Next legislative session lawmakers will take up a bill to repeal some of these exemptions. Supporters say it’s a public health issue and that more and more parents are using exemptions, putting their child and others at risk during infectious outbreaks. Opponents say parents should have a right to decide what is best for their children while observing their religious beliefs.  

Do you SUPPORT or OPPOSE repealing the religious exemption?

1. Strongly support 47.9
2. Somewhat support 8.5
COMBINED SUPPORT 56.4
3. Neutral/DK/No opinion [DNR] 5.3
4. Somewhat oppose 10.6
5. Strongly oppose 27.8

Supporters of strengthening the law say this is a public health and safety issue, and point to the growth of children not immunized in Oklahoma as the cause of an increase in the number of cases of whopping cough in the state.

Earlier this year Oklahoma also had its first confirmed measles case in 18 years as an outbreak largely linked to Disneyland infected nearly 180 people.

Opponents say it’s a personal liberty issue and that parents should be able to choose whether they want their own children vaccinated or not, while observing their own religious beliefs.

A recent Oklahoma television station reported that only 60 percent of Oklahoma’s children, aged 19 months to 35 months, are vaccinated, leaving the state with one of the lowest vaccination rates in the country.  The Oklahoma State Department of Health reports unvaccinated children are at greater risk of catching communicable diseases and that an outbreak could be fatal to the young, the old, and those with immune deficiencies within the community.

“Oklahomans believe the public’s health safety is the priority in this debate,” said Bill Shapard, CEO of SoonerPoll, who went on to note that an overwhelming 94.3 percent of poll respondents believed it was important that parents get their children vaccinated.

Additional insights indicate that women are two points more likely to support strengthening the vaccination laws, while support is strong regardless of those who live in urban or rural communities.

There was also no statistical difference in the results of respondents based on age, income, education, or political ideology.

Evangelical voters were seven points less likely to support the repeal of the religious exemption than non-evangelicals, but 52.1 percent of evangelicals still supported it’s repeal, with 54.9 percent of respondents who attend church more than once a week supporting repeal.

Next session, legislators will take up SB 830, a bill introduced by Senator Ervin Yen (R- Oklahoma City) which would limit exemptions to medical reasons only.  Senator Yen is a cardiac anesthesiologist and the only doctor in the Oklahoma state senate.

 

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll, and commissioned by Blue Cross/Blue Shield of Oklahoma.

The scientific study was conducted from September 1-15, 2015 with 403 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a dual frame of both landline telephone and cell phones. The sample was weighted by political party and age in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a general election.

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 4.88 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

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The Affordable Care Act passed in 2010, or otherwise known as Obamacare, is not liked by Oklahoma likely voters.  The latest SoonerPoll Quarterly found that just 25 percent viewed the legislation favorably and an overwhelming 70 percent viewed it unfavorably. Nationally, the bill is more favored at 43 percent, but a majority 52 percent view it unfavorably.

“I think we’ve found the floor of support for Obama’s healthcare reform at 25 percent in the state,” said Bill Shapard, CEO of SoonerPoll.com.  “Some voters are going to view it favorably no matter what.”

The bill has had a rocky start, spending millions on healthcare exchanges that have not worked as planned.  Oklahoma did not build its own healthcare marketplace and participates in the federal exchange.  Parts of the bill were delayed in implementation beyond its enacted date by the president, including the employer mandate that was just implemented at the beginning of this year.

Still, little has gone according to plan for the president and his Democrat supporters.

Insurance premiums of the Oklahoma Obamacare plans continue to rise with more than 30 percent increases starting in 2016.  President Obama had predicted that the bill would eventually lower a family’s insurance premiums by $2500.

Oklahoma Democrats were more favorable (42%) of the healthcare bill than Republicans, but still a majority of Democrats were unfavorable toward the legislation (52%) which is considered a cornerstone of the president’s seven years in office.  Eighty-four percent of Republicans were unfavorable and 70 percent of Independents.

Even in Little Dixie, the once Democrat stronghold in the state, 56 percent of likely voters were “very unfavorable” toward the bill, and another 16 percent were somewhat unfavorable.

Conservatives in the state are overwhelmingly unfavorable toward the bill, but 58 percent of moderates and even 41 percent of liberals are as well.  Surprisingly, those with household incomes under $25,000, and those most likely to qualify for Obamacare, were just as likely to view the healthcare reform unfavorably as higher income households.

Additionally, no statistical differences were observed among any other major demographic groups.

Leading up to its passage, Democrats like former president Bill Clinton believed the bill would be seen more favorably once it was passed, and even when that did not occur, believed its complete implementation over the next five years would turn favor-ability in their favor.  In Oklahoma, just as nationally, this still has not happened.

 

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll.

The scientific study was conducted from September 1-15, 2015 with 403 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a dual frame of both landline telephone and cell phones. The sample was weighted by political party and age in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a general election.

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 4.88 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

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Make no mistake about it, Oklahoma is a pro-life state.  The latest SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll asked likely voting Oklahomans about their views on abortion, regulations on abortion clinics, and whether they consider themselves to be pro-life or pro-choice.  More than two-thirds (68.7%) considered themselves to be pro-life in Oklahoma.

Nationally, the trend has been slowly moving towards pro-life over the last two decades, and spent the six years near equally divided.  But, the most recent results of this national survey shows a move toward pro-choice, and this illustrates just how differently Oklahomans are on this issue compared to the rest of the nation.

Seventy-nine (79%) percent of Republicans consider themselves to be pro-life, which is not uncommon among Republicans at the national level.  But in Oklahoma, 57 percent of Democrats are pro-life with 47 percent identifying as “strongly pro-life,” making Oklahoma Democrats the near opposite of their national counterparts who are clearly the driving force in the pro-choice movement.

Sixty percent (60%) of Independents, who make up about eight percent of the electorate in Oklahoma, identify themselves as pro-life with 43 percent “strongly pro-life.”

Women are also a sharp divider between Oklahoma and the nation as a whole on this issue.  In Oklahoma, 68 percent of women are pro-life whereas nationally 54 percent of women consider themselves as pro-choice.  An astounding 59 percent of women in Oklahoma consider themselves to be “strongly pro-life.”

At the national level, single women particularly, are very pro-choice, but in Oklahoma 65 percent of single women identify themselves as pro-life.  Married women in Oklahoma are five points more likely to identify as pro-life, but are nearly ten points more likely to identify as “strongly pro-life” than single women.

“This is significant,” said Bill Shapard, CEO of SoonerPoll.com, who went on to note that the Democrat pro-choice message is one of the reasons why Oklahoma is such a red state.  “The national Democrats driving the pro-choice message and the state Democratic Party embracing it, is not only pushing Oklahoma Democrats to the Republican Party, but women as well.”

It is worth noting that young adults at the national level, while typically more likely to support abortion under any circumstances, are becoming less supportive and are now roughly tied with seniors in their view to make abortion illegal in all circumstances.  This can also be seen in Oklahoma where 58 percent of those 18 to 34 years of age identify as pro-life.

Poll respondents were also asked if they supported or opposed the Oklahoma legislature taking steps to protect women by passing safer regulations on abortion clinic practices, and 54 percent supported it overall.  Among Republicans, the support was 57 percent, while slightly more than a majority of Democrats supported it (51.7%).

Support for safer regulations was universal among both pro-life and pro-choice Oklahomans, with 52 percent of pro-lifers and 57 percent of pro-choicers.

“The pro-choice position that abortions should be ‘safe, legal and rare’ is resonating with both pro-choice and pro-life Oklahomans — or, for pro-lifers at least the safe and rare part,” said Shapard.

 Do you SUPPORT or OPPOSE the Oklahoma legislature passing legislation that would prohibit abortions in Oklahoma with the EXCEPTION of saving the life of the mother?

1. Strongly support 41.2
2. Somewhat support 14.1
COMBINED SUPPORT 55.3
3. Neutral/DK/No opinion [DNR] 9.8
4. Somewhat oppose 15.5
5. Strongly oppose 19.4

Likely voting Oklahomans were also asked whether they would support or oppose the legislature prohibiting abortions altogether with the only exception of saving the life of the mother.  Fifty-five percent supported the move, while ten percent were undecided and 35 percent opposed.  Roughly half of all Democrats and women supported the abortion prohibition.

This is the first time SoonerPoll has asked these particular questions.  Eight years ago, however, a SoonerPoll found three out of four Oklahomans said “it was a medical decision for a woman and her doctor,” but results were mixed for what those circumstances should be — and who should make the decision.

“Since then it would appear that Oklahomans’ views on abortion are changing just like at the national level,” said Shapard, “only Oklahomans have rapidly become more pro-life than the nation as a whole.”

“Without a doubt, this has contributed to Oklahoma’s move from a Democrat majority state to a Republican majority state.”

In 2012, poll results showed Oklahomans opposed a new mandate in the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare,  that provided free access to the morning-after and week-after pill, known as Plan B and Ella. 

In 2010, another poll showed Oklahomans supported the controversial abortion law that was passed after Governor Brad Henry’s veto of the bill was overridden in the Senate.

 

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll, and commissioned by the group Protect Life and Marriage Oklahoma.

The scientific study was conducted from September 1-15, 2015 with 403 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a dual frame of both landline telephone and cell phones. The sample was weighted by political party and age in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a general election.

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 4.88 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

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Oklahomans believe those who have had their property confiscated by law enforcement, without being convicted of a crime, have been denied their constitutional rights of due process, according to the most recent quarterly poll conducted by SoonerPoll.

Current state law allows law enforcement agencies to keep confiscated cars, money, homes or other property associated with suspected criminal activity even if a criminal conviction is not achieved, so long as a judge authorizes it. Many district attorneys in the state have expressed opposition to changing the law.

Seventy percent (69.9%) of Oklahoma likely voters supported new legislation that would allow law enforcement only to keep confiscated property when a criminal conviction is achieved. Results varied only slightly based on party affiliation with 58 percent of Republicans strongly supporting the legislation, 53 percent of Democrats and half of all Independents. Support was also seen among both liberals and conservatives, with 59 percent strong support among those who identified themselves as “very liberal” and 72 percent among those who identified themselves as “very conservative.”

“Oklahomans believe that law enforcement in the state, of which they have a very favorable opinion, is just on the wrong side of this issue,” said Bill Shapard, CEO of SoonerPoll, who went on to note that an overwhelming 81 percent of the same poll respondents in the poll had a favorable opinion of their local police or sheriff’s department.

 Do you SUPPORT or OPPOSE new legislation that would allow enforcement only to keep confiscated property when a criminal conviction is achieved?

1. Strongly support 55.6
2. Somewhat support 14.3
COMBINED SUPPORT 69.9
3. Neutral/DK/No opinion [DNR] 4.3
4. Somewhat oppose 6.8
5. Strongly oppose 19.0

When asked if law enforcement keeping confiscated property without getting a conviction denied those of their constitutional right of due process and was un-American, 78 percent agreed, which was the largest percentage of agreement among a variety of arguments in favor of new legislation that have been suggested by supporters.

Sixty-eight percent agreed that this ability to confiscate property without a conviction might encourage cash-strapped counties to increase confiscations in order to pay its bills, including 67 percent of Republicans, 70 Democrats, and 68 percent of Independents.

Even when asked if this restriction on keeping confiscated property greatly hampered the ability of law enforcement to effectively fight the war on drugs and drug cartels, 57 percent of Oklahoma likely voters disagreed.

The poll results presented no significant differences among the opinions of rural and urbans voters, men and women, those within different age groups, or any other major demographic subset with adequate sample size.

 

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll, and commissioned through a joint effort of the left-leaning Oklahoma Policy Institute and the right-leaning Oklahoma Council for Public Affairs.

The scientific study was conducted from September 1-15, 2015 with 403 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a dual frame of both landline telephone and cell phones. The sample was weighted by political party and age in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a general election.

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 4.88 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

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The latest quarterly poll from SoonerPoll, Oklahoma’s only non-partisan polling firm, has Donald Trump leading in the state with just under one-third of the Republican primary vote at 30.8 percent.

Ben Carson, who won the Southern Republican Leadership Conference (SRLC) Straw Poll last May in Oklahoma City, trailed in second place with 22.5 percent of Republicans.

Carly Fiorina, who has performed well in two nationally televised debates, was the third most favored among Republican voters with 8.3 percent, followed by Ted Cruz in fourth with 6.5 percent.

The next three placers included Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, and Marco Rubio — all in the single digits.

It should be noted that this poll was conducted before the start of the second presidential debate held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California last Wednesday.  The fielding ended the night before the debate.

 Thinking now about the 2016 presidential election.  If the Republican presidential primary was TODAY and you were standing in the voting booth RIGHT NOW and had to make a choice, for whom would you vote? [READ IN ROTATED ORDER]

Donald Trump 30.8
Ben Carson 22.5
Carly Fiorina 8.3
Ted Cruz 6.5
Jeb Bush 6.2
Mike Huckabee 5.0
Marco Rubio 4.1
John Kasich 2.2
Scott Walker 1.6
Chris Christie 1.0
Rand Paul 0.9
Rick Perry 0.5
Undecided 10.4

Five other candidates did not receive any votes: Jim Gilmore, George Pataki, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham and Rick Santorum.  Rick Perry received one vote but has since suspended his campaign.

Interestingly, Rick Santorum, who did not receive a single vote in this poll, won the 2012 Oklahoma presidential primary with 33.8 percent of the vote with over 96,000 votes.

Mike Huckabee, whose running in the pack in this poll, was the favorite among Oklahoma Republicans eight years ago leading up to the 2008 presidential election but eventually lost out to John McCain, who polled better in head-to-head match-ups.

Trumps appeal to Republicans was focused primarily among those Republican voters who identify themselves as somewhat conservative to moderate and liberal, beating Carson and all other competitors by 10 points or more.  The Republicans who identify themselves as “very” conservative, however, were nearly split with Trump getting 28.8 percent and Carson getting 27.2 percent.  Republicans who identify themselves as very conservative are 52 percent of the primary electorate in Oklahoma.

Men favored Trump by 17 points over women, who favored Carson by four points over Trump.

Trump led by five points among evangelical voters over Carson, and 12 points among non-evangelicals.

Trumps greatest support came from the more rural parts of the state where he led by ten points or more over all of his Republican competitors in the state’s three mostly rural congressional districts.  In the more urban Oklahoma City and Tulsa congressional districts, Trump was tied with Carson.

Age also created a separation between the front-runners, with Trump beating Carson by at least six points in every age group except those 65 and older who favored Carson by two points over Trump.  Roughly one-in-three voters of the Republican primary electorate are over the age of 65, the largest among the age groups.

Donald Trumps is expected to make his first visit to the Sooner State as a presidential candidate this Friday at the Oklahoma State Fair in Oklahoma City.

 

About the Poll

The poll of 320 likely Republican voters in Oklahoma was conducted September 1-15, 2015 from a dual frame of 82 cellphone and 238 landline users. The margin of error is plus or minus 5.48 percentage points.

Poll results were weighted by age, phone (cellphone and landline) and congressional district, and stratified to a profile of statewide likely Republican voters using a proprietary database developed by SoonerPoll. This poll conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

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