Results from the most recent SoonerPoll show U.S. Representative Mary Fallin continues to dominate the Republican gubernatorial race with 59 percent of respondents support.

State Senator Randy Brogdon is Fallin’s closest competitor, and despite increased exposure in earned media,  his numbers still lag Fallin’s by 48.8 points.  Although Brogdon trails heavily in the primary race, he maintains stronger support among his base, which consists of the self identified  ‘Tea Party Movement’ supporters and other very conservative voters.

“Despite all the talk about Tea Party insurgency in Republican primaries, the mainstream Republican candidate in the Oklahoma gubernatorial race is dominating the vote,” observed Soonerpoll’s Keith Gaddie. “We’ve seen no progress in Senator Brogdon’s numbers among likely Republican voters over the last five months.  Surely there will be movement as the campaign intensifies, but as other Tea-oriented candidates around the country such as Marco Rubio, who made significant gains among Republicans in Florida, there’s no evidence of Tea movement impact on the Oklahoma governor’s race.”

SoonerPoll.com conducted the scientific study using live interviewers by telephone of 324 likely voters from May 25 – June 9, 2010. The study has a margin of error of ± 5.4 percent.

Republican Gubernatorial Primary Crosstabs

Two recent Republican candidate additions, Roger L. Jackson and Robert Hubbard, were polled for the first time since joining the race. Jackson, a retired Oklahoma businessman, had 1.9 percent of respondents support while Hubbard, a businessman from Yukon, had 1.2 percent of respondents support.

Like Brogdon, Jackson and Hubbard are running on a similar far-right brand of conservatism that is very popular this election season among Tea Party supporters.

In other states such as Florida and Nevada, Tea Party backed candidates have been able to move ahead of their more moderate establishment Republican counterparts by getting to the idealogical right of their opponent.  This has and may still prove to be problematic for Brogdon as Fallin is viewed as very conservative by the Republican electorate.

23 COMMENTS

  1. If you want to know what the difference is between Rep. Fallin and Sen. Brogdon go to their websites or youtube and watch the videos they have posted. Mary Fallin doesn’t seem to have it together, she doesn’t offer any ideas on how to fix the problems with Oklahoma. Sen. Brogdon has been authoring bills to improve the state and has many more great ideas to lead Oklahoma out of the economic crisis, and to protect the citizens of Oklahoma from the fat cats in Washington who are trying to take away our freedoms and make our decisions for us.

  2. I believe Mary Fallin defiently has it together. She has many stimulating ideas for the economy and the problems we have in Oklahoma. She plans on improving our education, which then goes hand in hand with economic development. With educated people, come oppurtunities for job growth. She also strongly supports the energy industry in Oklahoma, from oil to wind power. These two industrys open up many job oppurtunities, for more people then we can imagine. She does not favor cap and trade, and stated recently in an interview with the Broken Arrow Ledger how as governor she would have the oppurtunity to inform our President on how terrible this would be on the oil industry in Oklahoma. She has great insight on the national and state picture, for she has she has worked in both sectors. Mary Fallin has great conservative values for our state, and especially it’s economy.

    • That sounds like a campaign commercial. If fallin wins, many people like me will sit out the general election.

      NO MORE PROGRESSIVES. PERIOD.

      • As with all big government politicians, Ms. Fallin plans to use government for this, that and anything else she deems “conservative”. She has had 18 months of opportunity to inform our president on a plethora of issues but her silence is deafening. I reluctantly voted for one John McCain in the general election of 2008. I will NOT vote for another in Oklahoma. If she wins this primary, I too, will sit this one out. Progressives of all stripes must be defeated, this includes Mary Fallin. VOTE RANDY BROGDON or embrace more hope and change……

      • I know how you feel Jason, but do not sit out the election. We need all the voters we can get to take our country back. You can bet the Dimocrats will be beating the bushes to get out the vote. I, like you, want no more progressives, either Rebuplican or Democrat, in office. We need good solid Constitutional Conservatives to take back America. I am now in the process of checking out each and every candidate on the ballot for the Primary. My wife and I are senior citizens and vote absentee ballot, so we get the ballot ahead of time and it gives me time to research the candidates. I have not made up my mind yet about the Governors office, but if you are against Fallin, for petes sake, vote for the candidate you think will do the best job. Don’t stay home and let the progressives win another one.

  3. There is zero difference between Mary Fallin and Brad Henry.

    If you go to her website she does not even list what she stands for!

    Oklahoma cannot afford to have another crook as Governor.

    • Really?

      100% pro-life Fallin would have vetoed anti-abortion bills?

      Fallin would pack her administration with Democrat hacks?

      Fallin would select on of Dave McCurdy’s relatives for a judicial appointment?

      Fallin would have appointed an Ethnic American Advisory Council that published an English translation of the Qur’an embossed with the Oklahoma State seal?

      Fallin would have vetoed a tort reform bill?

      Fallin would have appointed James Edmondson to the Okla. Supreme Court?

      Fallin would have given sanctuary from a redistricting warrant to Texas Democrats in that state’s legislature by allowing them to travel across state lines into Oklahoma en masse to deny a quorum for voting on a redistricting plan?

      Fallin is NOT the same as Henry. Not by a longshot!

  4. The mail that Mary sent out was completely legal, and many ofl our elected officials use it. The mail had to go through a bipartisan committee to be approved. The mailing did not talk about her run for governor, it was informing her constitutes of her district on how she is voting and different situations in congress. There is nothing wrong or shameful in using this measure. Elected officials have to notify their constitutes some how. If you are going to get mad at her for using a service provided to her, then get mad at all the other ones as well.

  5. Tell me, Gabe, just exactly what Ms. Fallin plans to do to stop this march toward socialism? She voted FOR the bailouts and has been in Washington for long enough to make her position clear. I think she’s just another progressive republican in the same vein as John McCain and Lindsey Graham. Maybe, just maybe, she kinda enjoys this hope and change. After all, more government power favors the politicians, not the people. Who does she represent? Really?

    • I do understand Charlie, but Mary voting for the bailout is a very misunderstood topic. She voted yes on the initial $192B bailout. At that time they were told money production was to come to a halt in three days if something was not done immediately. They were also told how the funds were to be used, but then they were used in different ways. It would have been worse for the economy if production of money was stopped, it would have been awfully close to a great depression the sequel. All but one of the Oklahoma representatives voted yes. Drastic times call for drastic measures. Since then Mary has voted no for every bill that wanted to add to the bailout including an additional $825B, a $15B bailout for Chrysler and GM, and a $60B bill for jobs and infrastructure. She did not vote for the largest bailout in history.

      Mary has continually been praised for her conservative voting. She was ranked the most conservative Congressman in Oklahoma by the National Journal, received a lifetime score of 96 from the American Conservative Union, and is 100% pro life. She wants to move government out of the way, and let free enterprise work the way it should.

      During these difficult times in America, and all the corruption within the political arena, it is almost considered degrading to some people if you are a politician. Although there may be many corrupt figures, Mary Fallin is not one of them. She is completely in touch with what the people want, and need. She is an honest, hard working, small town Oklahoma girl. Washington has not gotten to her, and being Governor will not as well. She will serve this state just and we will prosper under her leadership. I urge all who care for the future of this state in all aspects to vote for Mary Fallin for our next Governor.

      • With all due respect, Gabe. I realize they were lied to about how the money was to be used and we’ve all been told how much worse things would have been had these actions not been taken; but would they really? The point I’m trying to make here is this: what does Mary Fallin really believe in? The free market system, or some muddled version of it where the government feels the need to interfere and “fix’ the problems. I don’t believe the economy would be worse and we’re awfully close to the great depression now. Furthermore it doesn’t matter how the other reps voted, they’re not running for governor. I’ve not suggested that Mary is dishonest or corrupt in any way, just misguided. And I don’t believe this state will prosper unless we have leadership that will fight back against this out of control federal government of which she is currently a part of. I do agree however, that drastic times call for drastic measures, like smaller and less intrusive government. Senator Brogdon is the only candidate for governor who espouses these principals and I urge all liberty loving Oklahomans who share these values to take bold action on July 27 and cast their vote for a new direction for our state and our nation. I would also encourage you to rethink your support for Ms. Fallin. Our future and the future of our children may well depend on it.

        • “She was ranked the most conservative Congressman in Oklahoma by the National Journal, received a lifetime score of 96 from the American Conservative Union, and is 100% pro life.”

          The Brogdon supporters always overlook these points.

  6. Isn’t it odd that Fallin could not win the straw poll in her own party? Isn’t it really strange that she voted like a liberal while In the U.S. House as one of our Representatives? Does no body remember her record as Lt. Governor? She was in more hot water than my kids are when they misbehave, but yet she expects us to believe she is the right person for the Bovernor’s job! Gimme a break here! She will say whatever it takes to gain and hold on to power. The simple truth is that she could not cut it in Washington and she cannot in Oklahoma either.

    • No, it’s not “odd” because the state committee is packed with hard-core activists. Brogdon has “stumped” more in activist circles and has concentrated much of his resources on winning these activists. They do not reflect the vast majority of voters.

      On the other hand, scientific polling reflects real voters (i.e. mostly folks who do not eat, breathe and sleep GOP politics). And the polls repeatedly show that only Fallon can beat Edmondson.

      Thus, a vote for Brogdon now is a vote for Edmondson in November.

  7. My Grandpa always said, “Say what you mean, and mean what you say.” I have not heard this straight talk from any candidate for Governor except Brogdon. He seems to be pretty much a “let the chips fall where they may” kind of man.
    I made myself a promise when the first rush to “bailout” our economy was used that I would not vote again for anyone who fell for the notion that our country would come to a grinding halt if we did not do something immediately. This includes Fallin and Coburn. If they were duped once, they could be duped again, at my expense.
    Hurry, hurry, hurry and being relentless has been the tactic used by the Progressive Socialist Democrats. They remind me of a water balloon; step on it here, and it squishes up over there…you get the picture.
    I am ready for change, real change. From our do nothing Governor whose legacy is gambling and abortion to our Washington reps (S & HR) who have turned their back on our Constitution by allowing government and debt to grow to staggering proportions,
    I will certainly be very cautious of who gets my vote in July and November.

  8. If you’re calling Mary Fallin a liberal, then your view of what’s mainstream and politically acceptable in this country is seriously warped. I’m voting for Edmondson, so if y’all wanna stay out of the race and let him win be my guest. Some of y’all need a better appreciation for the give-and-take that is Washington. Just putting in a bunch of far-right ideologues isn’t going to make this state or country better, the same way a bunch of communists wouldn’t make it better because the vast majority in the middle will laugh at you. Mary Fallin is the best candidate y’all have and (other than Drew), she’ll do the best job as governor. Yeesh. What do you people want? Not this whole “I want my country back” crap, what do you really, practically want to see happen to this country on the policy level? I watch Fox News a lot and I have talked to a number of Tea Party members at rallies, mostly to get a sense of what they stand for. I still have no idea, and I don’t think most of them do either.

  9. The Constitution is what we stand for. That includes the 10th amendment. It’s a fairly short read. I encourage you to give it try.

  10. I was duped into supporting Mary Fallin and Tom Cole throughout there political careers. They both claim they stand for strong conservative principals (smaller government, fiscal responsibility ect.) Both look good on the cover, but a quick look at their voting record shows their true colors. They have both voted consistently to increase the size of government, Send our troops all over the globe to police the world with unconstitutional, undeclared wars, and have helped spend us and our great grand children into oblivion. The only thing I ask for in a representative is to do the one thing they swear an oath to do. Support the constitution! when 90% of your district is against an unconstitutional bailout bill and you vote for it anyway there is no excuses that should save you from losing your political career.

  11. But the bottom line is that Brogdon cannot beat Edmondson and Fallin can.

    Fallin has a conservative voting record, highlighted by her votes AGAINST the Democrat take-over of the health care system.

    Fallin has a “96” lifetime rating by the American Conservative Union (http://www.votesmart.org/issue_rating_detail.php?r_id=4785) That’s only four points less than Tea Party fav Michele Bachmann. And a whopping 14 points better than McCain.

    It’s sad that the [j]OK[e]PAC/John Birch “tail feathers” of the Oklahoma GOP would rather sanctimoniously back a sure-fire loser (Brogdon) or stay home in a fit than to help stop another four years of Democrat executive branch rule (e.g. trial lawyer dominance of Oklahoma judicial nominations, regular vetos of conservative bills, Democrat agency heads and policies)

  12. I am going to go vote in a few hours, and was undecided until I read this blog. Yes, I HAVE read the Constitution lately and wish many more people would do the same. I highly respect Mr. Brogden for standing up for what he believes in, but I respect Mrs. Fallin even more for not using negative advertising or even defending herself. It is apparent that when her WHOLE record is considered (not just one or two votes) that she is plenty conservative and, more importantly, a strong proponent of free trade and constitutional liberty. When it comes down to it, if in the polls, they were both shown as able to defeat Edmondson, I would be more inclined to choose Brogdon. However, considering that Fallin is more likely to win AND is a constitutional conservative, I’ve decided that tonight my vote will be Mary Fallin.
    God bless :)

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