Results from the most recent SoonerPoll show U.S. Representative Mary Fallin continues to dominate the Republican gubernatorial race with 59 percent of respondents support.
State Senator Randy Brogdon is Fallin’s closest competitor, and despite increased exposure in earned media, his numbers still lag Fallin’s by 48.8 points. Although Brogdon trails heavily in the primary race, he maintains stronger support among his base, which consists of the self identified ’Tea Party Movement’ supporters and other very conservative voters.
“Despite all the talk about Tea Party insurgency in Republican primaries, the mainstream Republican candidate in the Oklahoma gubernatorial race is dominating the vote,” observed Soonerpoll’s Keith Gaddie. “We’ve seen no progress in Senator Brogdon’s numbers among likely Republican voters over the last five months. Surely there will be movement as the campaign intensifies, but as other Tea-oriented candidates around the country such as Marco Rubio, who made significant gains among Republicans in Florida, there’s no evidence of Tea movement impact on the Oklahoma governor’s race.”
SoonerPoll.com conducted the scientific study using live interviewers by telephone of 324 likely voters from May 25 – June 9, 2010. The study has a margin of error of ± 5.4 percent.
Two recent Republican candidate additions, Roger L. Jackson and Robert Hubbard, were polled for the first time since joining the race. Jackson, a retired Oklahoma businessman, had 1.9 percent of respondents support while Hubbard, a businessman from Yukon, had 1.2 percent of respondents support.
Like Brogdon, Jackson and Hubbard are running on a similar far-right brand of conservatism that is very popular this election season among Tea Party supporters.
In other states such as Florida and Nevada, Tea Party backed candidates have been able to move ahead of their more moderate establishment Republican counterparts by getting to the idealogical right of their opponent. This has and may still prove to be problematic for Brogdon as Fallin is viewed as very conservative by the Republican electorate.