Republican presidential candidate and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich received the support of one-third of the 400 likely Republican Primary voters polled in a recent SoonerPoll.com study.

With 33.3 percent plurality, Gingrich leads in Oklahoma by more than a two-to-one margin over former Governor Mitt Romney who came in second with 14.3 percent.

“Since Republican primary candidates rarely visit Oklahoma on the campaign trail, it is not uncommon for Oklahoman’s opinions to mirror national polls receiving media attention,” Bill Shapard, CEO of SoonerPoll.com, said.

The SoonerPoll went in the field on November 17, and results from Gallup’s daily poll of the Republican field have revealed Gingrich to be the nationwide front-runner since November 13.

Romney consistently came in second in the Gallup daily poll during the time the SoonerPoll.com study was conducted, though never with less than 21 percent.

“It is not really surprising that the leader and runner up in our poll mirrored the national polls,’ Shapard said.  “But what is surprising is how much lower Romney’s poll numbers are compared to nationwide numbers reported in the media.’

Romney received just 14.3 percent in the SoonerPoll study, despite maintaining numbers in the mid to high twenties nationwide.

Shapard said that since the poll only asked respondents who they would vote for, there is very little data to help explain why Romney’s numbers are lower in the state.

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Governor Rick Perry came in third, earning 9.3 percent, followed by Representative Ron Paul who garnered the support of 4.3 percent of respondents.

Nationally, Ron Paul has been polling in third place ahead of Rick Perry, but Shapard said additional data may shed some light on why the results are reversed in the state.

“Perry has had the majority of his success among evangelical Americans, and when we look at the crosstabs we see Perry polling within a single percentage point of Romney among evangelical Oklahoma voters,” Shapard said. “Though we can never be sure, this may account for why Perry is bucking the national trend here in Oklahoma.”

Former business executive Herman Cain was a serious candidate when fielding began on the SoonerPoll study.  Cain suspended his campaign during the fielding process, but his name was read to respondents until the end of the study for consistency.

Cain received support from 9.3 percent of respondents in the study.

Shapard said that since Cain has not officially backed a candidate, it is unclear how his percentage of votes will break in Oklahoma.

“Based on how Gingrich’s rise coincided with Cain’s downfall in the national polls, we would expect many of Cain’s Oklahoma supporters to break for Gingrich,” Shapard said. ”But again, the nature of this type of polling makes it impossible to speak definitively on such matters.”

Three other candidates received less than 4 percent in the study.  Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, and Jon Huntsman finished with 3.5 percent, 1.5 percent and 1.3 percent respectively.

SoonerPoll plans to continue polling the race in the coming months as well as the general election that will follow.

“A lot can change in a few short months,” Shapard said. “It will be interesting to see how much opinion changes between now and March 6th.”

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, commissioned this poll.  SoonerPoll.com conducted the scientific poll Nov. 17-Dec. 16, 2011.   Likely Oklahoma voters who identified themselves as Republicans were selected at random and given the opportunity to participate in the poll by phone or online. Of the 400 respondents who participated, 4 took the survey online and 396 responded via telephone interview. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

 

3 COMMENTS

  1. Nobody from the Sooner Poll contacted me. I’m sure I’m flagged as a Ron Paul supporter. I wasn’t allowed to volunteer anymore at the GOP after they found out, but it didn’t stop them from asking for money to go to their favorite candidate.

  2. I believe that Gingrich is the only “True Conservative”, running. I also
    believe he is the only Republican that not only the Democrats, and the
    Republican “old guard”, is worried about. He’s always been, anti establishment,
    that will change, for the better, the “destructive” direction, that Obama and
    his cronies, are taking our Great Country.
    God Bless America, and God Bless our Troops.

  3. Here’s the real Gingrich… http://www.realchange.org/gingrich.htm … People who support Gingrich should know who they’re dealing with! This Sooner will never vote for Gingrich or Santorum for that matter. Both Gingrich and Santorum are D.C. insiders who voted to raise the debt ceiling…several times!!! The only fiscal conservative running this time around is MITT ROMNEY (yeah, yeah, I know all about ‘RonmeyCare’, which is allowed under the Constitution as a state issue, plus the liberals in Mass. wanted it! Also, did you know that ‘RonmeyCare’ was coined by the Heritage Foundation, which is a conservative think tank…don’t believe it?…LOOK IT UP!!!) People should really do their homework, before voting, instead of just listening to the media! VOTE SMART IN 2012…YOUR CHILDREN’S FUTURE DEPENDS ON IT!!!

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