SoonerPoll’s most recent poll finds the field is narrowing as clear front-runners appear in the Republican primary race for Oklahoma’s fifth district U.S. Representative seat.  Former State Representative Kevin Calvey, who was leading when SoonerPoll first fielded this race in March, remains the leader with support from 27.8 percent Republicans whom are likely to vote in the 5th District primary on July 27th.

Political newcomer James Lankford has moved into the second place position with19.9 percent, while State Representative Mike Thompson, who was previously the second place candidate is currently in third with support from 14.1 percent of respondents.

Robert Weber a respondent from Oklahoma City said he wants to vote for Lankford precisely because he is fresh to politics.  “It is time to get rid of the professional politicians that is why I am voting for Lankford,” Weber said.

“What we might be seeing,  is a consequence of the campaign strategies of Lankford and Calvey,” Keith Gaddie, Vice President of SoonerPoll noted.  “Lankford is attempting to bring new voters into the process, while the Calvey campaign is going after active, core conservatives.”

It is important to note that the lead Calvey has over Lankford and the lead Lankford has over Thompson both fall within the margin of error.

State Representative Shane Jett, the last major candidate to join the field, received support from 6.2 percent of respondents, while Dr. Johnny Roy, Harry Johnson and Rick Flanigan finished in respective order, all with less than 3 percent of voters support.

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, commissioned and conducted the scientific study using live interviewers by telephone of 306 likely fifth district Republican voters from July 7– July 9, 2010. The study has a margin of error of ± 5.6 percent.

Complete Results and Analysis

29.1 percent of respondents were still undecided about the race, but if the current figures hold through the July 27 primary, Calvey would face Lankford in a runoff election since no candidate is expected to receive an absolute majority of votes.

To preliminarily measure runoff voting, SoonerPoll also asked respondents who their second preference would be. Results show that those who preferred a candidate other than Calvey or Lankford as their first choice chose Calvey over Lankford by a 2 to 1 margin as their second choice.  The runoff results are only preliminary at this point; however they serve as an indicator of what the runoff election will likely bring.

“Last minute campaigning and advertising spending could sway the large amount of undecided voters and affect who the top two candidates are going into the run-off,” Gaddie said.

Much like the primary dynamic, late advertising can alter the second-choice environment.   Political experts anticipate large amounts of third party money to be spent in the closing weeks of the campaign, a reflection of the recent Supreme Court case Citizens United v. FEC, which changed campaign fund-raising laws and allows for unlimited corporate spending.

10 COMMENTS

  1. Lankford terrifies me. While career politicians are bad, straight up ideologues who haven’t worked an honest day in their lives are even worse.

    • James Lankford rocks! Lots of honest days working in this man’s life. Though not as a state government bureaucrat, or politician.

    • Your statement is completely uninformed. Everyone is an ideologue, it means having a belief system that guides you; it’s just that some people are more honest about theirs than others.
      James Lankford is one of the hardest working people I have ever known. And I would much prefer and “ideologue” who is consistent in his beliefs and actions to a politician who is only interested in furthering his career.

    • You’re obviously a shill for another candidate Steve. Rather cowardly to make a statements attacking ones character and not be able to back it up with facts.

  2. The Lankford poll vote more than doubles! Shows what kind of campaign he is working, especially out in the “other” two counties that most of the candidates seem to be ignoring.

  3. Steve, your comment about James never working is not true. James has a great reputation as a leader and he is hard worker. That’s the reason why nearly 15,000 people follow him on Facebook and are also working hard to see him win this race. They know James has authentic character, a rare find in Washington, and the OKLA Capital these days.

  4. Lankford would be a better choice than Calvey. Many who served with Calvey in the state legislature wouldn’t vote for him. Why? Ask them.

    Moreover, back in 2008 the Democrats alleged that Calvey filed misleading campaign finance reports in 2006. “A detailed examination of Kevin Calvey’s Federal Election Commission Campaign Finance Reports filed for his 2006 US Congressional race found roughly $258,000 of Calvey’s $425,000 in total reported contributions was channeled to Calvey’s campaign through the Club for Growth PAC. . . . Club for Growth spent another $68,000 directly on Calvey mail outs and advertising. Yet, Calvey’s reports only identifies as PAC contributions a mere $9,300 he received from seven other PACs. The $325,000 Club for Growth PAC money was buried among individual non-PAC donations.”

    The Oklahoman newspaper reported in April 2006 that Calvey accepted campaign contributions to his 5th District Congressional Campaign from beneficaries of a controversial tax loophole. Some of the contributions were reportedly “three times the maximum amount allowed by law” and came from out-of-district contributors at a time when the loophole legislation was pending before Calvey’s legislative committee.

    Lankford does not have such well-publicized ethical questions waiting to be converted into a campaign ad.

  5. Steve: You should know better than to question the wisdom of putting a camp counselor in the U.S. House of Representatives. Maybe volleyball in the rotunda or canoeing in the fountain. But my other choice is the guy with Moe Howard’s haircut. Ugh.

    • Camp Counselor? Try the Director of the largest Christian camp in the country, which makes him more qualified than Obama was as a “community organizer.” This statement only reveals you lack of knowledge regarding camp ministry and administration. I’ve known James all my life. He discipled me when I was a boy back at in the time that he worked with my father. I assure you that he is not only a hard worker, but he is one of the most principled and disciplined men I know. He is respected by everyone who knows him best. He is a man of character, which is something Washington needs a lot more of these days. It’s interesting to me how our country will elect sports figures and actors because they recognize their names, but often overlook good men of character whose life work is serving others behind the scenes. Maybe, just maybe, that’s why the current Congress has a 11% approval rating. Let’s try something different! I just wish I lived there so I could vote for him! Praying for you James!

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