Public Opinion
Good professional practice imposes the obligation upon all public opinion researchers to include, in any report of research results, or to make available when that report is released, certain essential information about how the research was conducted.
–Section III, Code Of Professional Ethics And Practices, AAPOR
Public Opinion Polls
SoonerPoll conducts two types of public opinion polls: polls of likely voters and polls of Oklahoma residents.
Likey voters: how do we identify them?
Using our own internal database of registered voters – perhaps the most comprehensive and up-to-date voter database in the state – SoonerPoll identifies likely voters by using a statistical model we developed exclusively for this purpose. No other pollster has a comparable tool for determining likely voters, and the difference has been notable – our error rate has been the smallest among participating pollsters in Oklahoma’s last four general elections.
After using qualitative data on key factors, such as prior voting history, (among other factors) to construct our statistical model, we randomly pull our sample of likely voters. The list of likely voters in Oklahoma changes often. We keep the data current, and we continually monitor the growth of the state’s voting rolls. After determining which newly registered voters belong in the likely voter category, we add those individuals to our sampling frame.
Once likely Oklahoma voters are selected at random using the sampling frame described above, they will be given the opportunity to participate in the poll by phone or online. Most respondents who take our poll receive a call from our outbound call center, which you will read more about below, but our database of likely voters does contain some entries that do not have a valid phone number.
In order to give likely voters without a valid telephone number an opportunity to respond, postcards that contain both a unique identifier code for respondents who would prefer to take the survey online and an inbound phone number for respondents who want to complete the survey by phone.
Oklahoma Residents
SoonerPoll conducts Oklahoma resident polls among a representative sample of Oklahomans aged 18 and above. We develop samples of the Oklahoma telephone household population by using a random digit dialing (RDD) technique.
RDD selection starts with identifying all telephone exchanges that serve a desired “universe.” For example, a statewide survey would include all of the prefixes in the 405, 918 and 580 area codes.
After identifying the prefixes to be targeted, we eliminate non-working and business blocks of numbers. After valid blocks of numbers are weighted proportionally by the number of listed phone lines, we systematically select numbers to yield a probability sample of base numbers. Finally, random digits are added to the base number to create a random, ten-digit telephone number.
Data Collection
Every SoonerPoll public opinion poll completed by telephone is conducted within our on-site calling center in Oklahoma City using Computer-aided Telephone Interviewing (CATI) technology.
Our on-site call center allows us to manage every phase of the public opinion polling process and ensures that every Oklahoman we survey is contacted by an Oklahoman that is chosen, trained and supervised by the experts at SoonerPoll.
SoonerPoll’s data collection team includes a field director who is in charge of monitoring the sample, verifying interviews and providing feedback to interviewers. Each of our interviewers receives extensive training and practice interviewing sessions before working on any projects. Before they make that first call, every member of our data collection team is familiarized with the overall study objectives, interviewing techniques and the survey instrument.
Our Training Never Ends
While interviews are being conducted, the field director monitors interviewers and evaluates their performance. A monitoring team uses a standardized evaluation instrument to randomly assess individual interviewing effectiveness in areas including:
- appropriate feedback
- reading verbatim
- proper speech and pronunciation
- interviewing pace
- general rapport with respondents
Is all that really important?
Maintaining the highest standards throughout each interview is vital in order to maximize participation and accuracy. Other pollsters may be comfortable outsourcing the most sensitive phases of the data collection process, but at SoonerPoll, we believe accuracy is too important to leave up to chance.
Stratification
After the data collection process is complete, all of our public opinion polls are stratified using multiple variants that include, but are not limited to:
- age
- gender
- race
- political party affiliation
- predetermined geographical areas (municipality, county, etc.) within the poll’s “universe.”
The stratification process was developed by SoonerPoll using its own proprietary election turnout models. The success of our methods for determining likely voters becomes clearer with every election as we establish ourselves more firmly as Oklahoma’s leading pollster.
Polling Errors
All polls come with a theoretical calculation of sampling error. Most of us are accustomed to hearing “plus or minus four percent” when we hear a newscaster citing the most recent poll results. Sampling error, however, isn’t the most serious error in polling.
Errors may result from a myriad of other factors and, unfortunately, most of these are impossible to quantify. Factors that can cause errors include:
- coverage error
- declined interviews
- interviewer bias
- question wording
- question order, and
- an imperfect likely voter screening process
How does SoonerPoll minimize these errors?
It’s simple and it’s something that sets us apart from our competitors. At SoonerPoll, we use our own technology, our own resources and our own employees to maximize the accuracy of every data collection project we conduct.
We don’t outsource any portion of a polling project – we conduct every aspect of every poll in our offices with employees chosen, trained and supervised by us.
We don’t buy sample data for our likely voter surveys – we use a prior election turnout model developed exclusively by and for SoonerPoll’s use and our clients’ benefit – a model that resulted in polls with the smallest error rates of any Oklahoma pollster in the two most recent general elections.
In all of our public opinion polls, the professionals at SoonerPoll abide by the Code of Professional Ethics and Practices as prescribed by the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR).
