Poll suggests Oklahomans vote in shades of gray

3/26/2008

By Scott Cooper

Oklahoma City (Oklahoma Gazette) - Oklahomans are mainly conservative, but support civil unions; mostly oppose abortion, but believe in climate change; and support tax cuts, but want to end corporate welfare.  Those are some of the findings according to a recent, wide-ranging poll aimed at profiling the “typical” state voter.

SoonerPoll.com conducted the survey, which asked more than 500 Oklahomans their opinions on issues ranging from same-sex marriage to eminent domain.

“We need to understand more of who we are,” said SoonerPoll.com President Bill Shapard. “We just had our 100th birthday, and I think it’s a good hook to say, ‘Where are we at 100?’ I think it’s meaningful to find out who the Oklahoma voter is. What they think, what they feel, and why they feel that way.”

The unique aspect of the Jan. 30-Feb.5 poll is none of the questions were written by the polling firm. Each question came from the platforms of the Republican and Democratic parties in Oklahoma.

“The language that you use is going to influence the poll and influence what you get back from voters,” Shapard said. “This was not an attempt to persuade people. It was an attempt to say, ‘This is what the parties put in their platforms; now tell me whether you agree with it.’

“We didn’t want to test the issue, so to speak. We want to test how people respond. How many people have actually sat down and read the party platforms. I bet very few people have.”

But SoonerPoll.com’s method is not without critics. Oklahoma Gazette sent the poll to various organizations and asked for their response, both to the poll in general, as well as specific questions. The Gazette did not tell the organizations that the questions came straight from party platforms, but it wasn’t hard to figure that out.

“Party platforms are, by their nature, tendentious documents,” said Brandon Dutcher, vice president for policy of Oklahoma Council of Public Affairs, a conservative think tank in Oklahoma City. “But scientific polls, if they’re going to be useful at all, need to phrase questions in a way that is fair and doesn’t lead the respondent.”

Of the 517 likely voters surveyed for the poll, 51 percent considered themselves conservative, while 11 percent identified themselves as liberal. Moderates made up 32 percent of the respondents, and the rest couldn’t make up their mind or refused to say.

 More than half, 55 percent, said they were Democrats, while 41 percent were Republican. Independents made up 4 percent. The poll has a plus-or-minus 4.3 percent margin of error.

Some issues garnered a slam-dunk response from voters, like 73 percent agreeing the definition of marriage is one between one man and one woman. Lowering taxes went over well with 76 percent, and the most lopsided response on the poll was that 91 percent said they agree in some fashion with recognizing English as the official language of the United States.

But there were contradictions. While an overwhelming majority agreed on the definition of marriage, more respondents supported than opposed allowing legislation to establish civil unions regardless of gender. The poll showed 46 percent in favor with 28 percent opposing. Encouraging numbers for gay-rights organizations like the Cimarron Alliance Foundation.

“The right to visit your partner in the hospital, the right to inherit property, the consideration of jointly held benefits from Social Security, pensions and other programs (are) important to a fair and just society,” said Rob Howard, executive director of the Cimarron Alliance. “We believe that Oklahomans are fair and just people, and that they believe their fellow citizens should share in the benefits of our society.”

The survey showed a vast number of poll responders believe in lowering taxes-just not for the rich. In answer to the question of whether to repeal President Bush’s tax cuts for upper-income taxpayers, 55 percent said yes, while 33 percent said no.

According to Dutcher, that figure should not be a surprise, since most respondents considered themselves conservative.

“Conservatives generally oppose welfare, whether for welfare queens or corporate welfare kings,” he said.

Actually, most of likely voters surveyed were in a repealing mood. A majority – 50 percent to 30 percent – agreed with repealing the state’s Right to Work Law, an initiative voters approved in 2001. And Gov. Brad Henry might heed this result: 52 percent said they support repealing the lottery, which voters gave a thumbs-up to in 2004. Revenue from the lottery has not lived up to expectations, and the Oklahoma Lottery Commission is proposing changes to help bring in more income.

Shapard said the numbers indicate a minority of voters have tremendous sway.

“What we’re seeing is it takes just a few Republicans to vote with Democrats for something the Democrats want passed, or it takes just a few Democrats to join Republicans to get what Republicans want passed,” he said. “They are having to appeal to just a small number of the opposite party just enough to get something passed. When it happens, and it doesn’t quite work out the way everyone thought it would, then those few people who helped get it passed are the people who get the coldest feet first. Then they look like they are in repeal mode.”

Other results of note: A majority support a statewide vote on the use of medical marijuana, agree people should have full access to information about birth control, acknowledge humans are changing the Earth’s climate, want to pull U.S. troops out of Iraq as soon as possible and oppose a voter identification card.

Voters seemed to be more evenly divided on issues of government-funded embryonic stem-cell research, school vouchers, eliminating welfare, increasing minimum wage and teaching creationism in public schools.

After assessing the results, Shapard said Oklahoma voters seem to sit in areas of gray, rather than look at issues in black or white.

“This research shows why we don’t see one party dominate,” he said. “People’s minds change. Look at the polling on the war. It went form ‘go’ (2003) to ‘get out of there.’ The public is fickle.”

© Oklahoma Gazette