A recent SoonerPoll finds Mary Fallin and Jari Askins as front runners in the next governor race among likely Oklahoma voters.

The poll which asked voters who they would vote for if the gubernatorial election were held today, found that Republicans favored Mary Fallin, the Congresswoman for Oklahoma’s 5th congressional district, while Democrats favored Jari Askins, the Lieutenant Governor of Oklahoma.

Fallin leads the polls as the Republican candidate, with 45.3 percent of republicans polled saying they would vote for her if the election was held now. Fallin’s 45.3 percent is a substantial lead, nearly 20 points higher than the Republicans next choice former congressman J. C. Watts.

Jari Askins leads as the Democratic candidate with 33.9 percent of democrats polled saying they would vote for her if the election were held today. Askins leads Attorney General Drew Edmondson by just over 5 points. The 5 point lead is within the margin of error and sets up a close race between the Democrats.

SoonerPoll’s public opinion polls use a scientific random sample to consistently test Oklahoma’s likeliest voters’ political views and track them over time. The survey used in this analysis had a sample sizes of 318 Oklahoma residents (with a margin of error of ± 5.5%). The study used in this release was conducted via telephone between April 23-26, 2009.

If the race for Oklahoma Governor were held today…

• Those who consider themselves as very conservative in their political beliefs were over 11 points more likely to say they’d vote for Fallin over Watts and those who consider themselves as somewhat conservative 41 points more than Watts;
• Those who consider themselves Evangelical Christians were 21.3 points more likely to say they’d vote for Fallin over Watts;
• Fallin received more support in this poll from the district she currently serves and Congresswomen (84.6%) as well as the Congressional District represented by Congressman Frank Lucas (R) (66.7%) than the other three Oklahoma Congressional Districts;
• Watts received more support in this poll from the Congressional District represented by Congressman John Sullivan (R) (57.1%) than the other four districts;
• Those residing in the Oklahoma City MSA (metropolitan statistical area) were 48 points more likely than those residing in Tulsa and 20.9 points more likely than those residing in rural Oklahoma to say they’d vote for Fallin;
• Those residing in the Tulsa MSA were 37.2 points more likely than those residing in OKC and 15.6 points more likely than those residing in rural Oklahoma to say they’d vote for Watts;
• Those who have an unfavorable opinion of the Oklahoma Republican Party are 14.3 points more likely and those who have an unfavorable opinion of the National Republican Party are 31 points more likely to vote for Fallin over Watts in a race for Oklahoma Governor;
• Those who have an unfavorable opinion of the Oklahoma Democratic Party are 41.2 points more likely and those who have an unfavorable opinion of the National Democratic party are 30.4 points more likely to vote for Askins over Edmondson in a race for Oklahoma Governor.

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