By Silas Allen, The Oklahoman
Donald Trump’s lead in Oklahoma’s presidential contest appears to be shrinking.
Although the Republican nominee still holds a substantial lead in the race, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton appears to be making up ground in the Sooner State, according to a poll conducted this week.
The poll shows 50.9 percent of respondents said they would vote for Trump if the election were held today, down from 53 percent in a poll conducted in late July.
In last week’s poll, 35.6 percent said they would support Clinton, up from 28.6 percent in July.
Another 6 percent saying they would vote for Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, down from 7 percent in July. About 7.5 percent said they were undecided, down from 11.4 percent in July
Although Clinton still trails Trump by about 15 points, the poll suggests the state’s Democratic voters are beginning to coalesce around their party’s nominee, said Bill Shapard, founder of the Oklahoma City-based polling firm SoonerPoll.
“The Democrats are kind of coming home,” Shapard said.
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Additional Take-aways from the poll results:
- In the July poll, Trump was getting 26.1 percent of the Democrat vote. Today, he’s getting only 19.5 percent.
- More Democrats and Republicans are more decided on a candidate than in July. For Democrats, 8.4 percent are undecided compared to 14.7 percent in July. Republicans undecided dropped from 8.5 to just 6.4 percent.
- Independent voters still heavily favor Trump over Clinton, 48.1 to 26.5 percent, although Independent voters only make up about seven percent of the electorate.
- There was also a large shift among self identified moderates. Clinton improved 8.3 percent among moderates, from 41.8 percent in July to 50.1 percent today. Trump fell from 36.6 percent in July to 22 percent in this month’s poll. Moderates are one-in-three voters on election day.
- Greatest increase since July was among self-identified liberal voters, where just 67.8 percent supported Clinton in July with 8.6 percent undecided and another 8.7 percent supporting Gary Johnson. Now, 86 percent support Clinton, only 2.1 percent are undecided, and Johnson with no support of liberal respondents.
- The move away from Johnson is also a contributing factor in this poll. Johnson was receiving 7.2 percent of self-identified conservatives, now just 3.7 percent. Among Republicans, 8.8 percent supported Johnson in July, now just 4.6 percent.
- Furthermore, 63.7 percent of Johnson supporters in the poll said they were “less” enthusiast about voting this year compared to prior years, more than twice the amount among supporters of Trump or Clinton.
- It should also be noted that 71.2 percent of those undecided also indicated they were less enthusiast about voting this year compared to elections past.
About the Poll
SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll.
The scientific study was conducted from September 13-15, 2016 with 515 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus a online panel from Research Now. The sample was weighted by age, political party, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a general election. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’
The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 4.32 percent.
This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.
The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here. A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.