By Ben Felder, Oklahoman

The path to victory in an Oklahoma election goes through the pews of the state’s evangelical churches. And while the number of self-proclaimed evangelicals has declined in recent years, it remains one of the state’s largest voting blocs and is instrumental in deciding everything from the result of state questions to Oklahoma’s seven presidential electoral votes.

As a part of America’s Bible Belt — if not the buckle — Oklahoma’s likely voting population on Nov. 8 is estimated to be 55 percent evangelical, according to SoonerPoll’s analysis of likely voters.

Made up of mostly white members of Protestant churches that profess a born again-centric theology, such as Southern Baptist Convention, Church of the Nazarene, Assemblies of God and many nondenominational churches, in Oklahoma as evangelicals go, so goes the state.

Continued – Click here to read the entire Oklahoman article

 Support for Clinton/Trump and among the death penalty state question (SQ776), the Ten Commandments state question (SQ790), and expansion of wine/strong beer (SQ792), broken down by frequency of church attendance and by those who identify as evangelical

Frequency of church attendance and evangelical
Several times a week Weekly Never Evangelical
Clinton 13 40 58 52
15.1% 25.0% 43.7% 17.7%
Trump 68 97 60 214
77.4% 60.6% 45.0% 72.6%
SQ776 Support 69 114 94 240
78.5% 71.3% 70.9% 81.7%
SQ 790 Support 29 73 58 128
33.5% 45.8% 43.5% 43.4%
SQ 792 Support 31 96 114 159
36.2% 60.4% 85.5% 54.3%

About the Poll, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll and commissioned by the Oklahoman.

The scientific study was conducted from October 18-20, 2016 with 530 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus a online panel from Research Now. The sample was weighted by age, political party, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a general election. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 4.26 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

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Bill is the founder of and ShapardResearch, a full service market research firm based in Oklahoma City. Bill began his career in polling after working on a major campaign in Oklahoma from 1996 until founding SoonerPoll in 2004. Under Bill’s leadership, SoonerPoll has become the leading public opinion polling company in the state of Oklahoma conducting more public opinion polls for Oklahoma news media than all other pollsters combined since 2006. Bill’s commitment to go above and beyond the AAPOR ethical guidelines of minimum disclosure ensures that SoonerPoll produces quality results every time. Bill has lectured at Oklahoma State University on developing polling methodologies, data collection processes, and advanced likely voter sampling techniques. Bill also serves as an on-air political commentator for Oklahoma television stations.


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