Home Blog

Oklahomans prefer the state’s next governor is from rural Oklahoma

0

When it comes to thinking about who should be the state’s next governor, a plurality of likely-voting Oklahomans have a preference — that he or she is from the more rural parts of the state.

[QUESTION] Please complete this statement: “I would prefer that our next governor is from:”

1. Oklahoma City 19.3%
2. Tulsa 16.7
3. The more rural parts of the state 36.8
3. Unsure [DNR] 27.2

Among Democrats, 37 percent preferred a choice from rural Oklahoma, as well as 34.8 percent of Independents.  With Republicans, 37 percent also preferred a rural candidate which, at first, might seem interesting but, considering the shift of Republicans from urban to rural areas, this results seems more in line with current party alignment.

Self-identified liberals are more split in their preference with a plurality, 24 percent, wanting a rural candidate and 21 percent for an Oklahoma City one and another 21 percent for a Tulsan.

A plurality of self-identified conservatives also liked the idea of rural candidate with 36 percent, 22.5 percent for an Oklahoma City candidate, and 16.3 percent for a Tulsan. Moderates were similar, although favored a rural candidate by six points with 43.3 percent, 14.5 percent for an Oklahoma City candidate, and 16 percent for a Tulsan.

Women were five points more likely to favor a rural candidate, 39 percent compared to 34 percent for men.

Obviously, geographical location played a big role in candidate preference, but further highlights the role that rural Oklahoma plays in Oklahoma politics — now even more so that the majority Republican Party’s greatest growth over the last decade has been in rural areas.

Just over half (51.8 percent) of those in the Tulsa-dominated First Congressional District preferred a Tulsan as the next governor, and a plurality (36.1 percent) of Oklahoma City’s Fifth Congressional District favored an Oklahoma City candidate.

But, in Oklahoma’s more rural three congressional districts, voters preferred one of their own with 59 percent in CD2, 38.7 percent in CD3, and 44.3 percent in CD4. The disparity was greatest in the very rural Second Congressional District, where only a combined 12 percent favored a candidate from urban Oklahoma City and Tulsa.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll.

The scientific study was conducted from August 22-28, 2017 with 404 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus a online panel from Research Now. The sample was weighted by age, political party, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a general election. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 4.81 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

Oklahomans want Confederate statues, named schools to remain as historical symbols

1

When likely voting Oklahomans were asked if Confederate statues or schools named for Confederate leaders should remain as historical symbols or be removed or changed because they offend some people, 79 percent said let them remain according to the most recent SoonerPoll Quarterly poll.

[QUESTION] Do you believe that monuments in Oklahoma that honor Confederate leaders or soldiers should:

1. Remain as a historical symbol 79.7%
2. Or, be removed because they offend some people 14.6
3. Unsure [DNR] 5.7

The question wording was taken directly from a PBS/NPR News Hour Poll conducted by the Marist Poll.  Compared to its results, Oklahomans are a lot more supportive of leaving the statues and school names alone — 79 percent compared to 62 percent nationally.

[QUESTION] Do you believe schools or government buildings in Oklahoma that bear the name of a Confederate leader should:

1. Remain as a historical symbol 79.3%
2. Or, be changed because they offend some people 17.1
3. Unsure [DNR] 3.6

Of those who believed the name of schools should be changed, 27.5 percent oppose it once informed the cost to the taxpayer in changing the name could be in excess of $50,000, this according to leaders of the Oklahoma City School District. Only 58.6 percent were still supportive.

[QUESTION] Some government officials in Oklahoma have noted the cost to the taxpayer to change the name of a school to be in excess of $50,000. Knowing this, do you SUPPORT or OPPOSE changing the school’s name?

1. Still Support 58.6%
2. Now Oppose 27.5
3. Unsure [DNR] 13.9

Among Democrats, 65.5 percent said Confederate monuments should remain, and 76 percent of Independents. For moderate voters, 75.7 percent said they should remain and, amazingly, 45.9 percent of self-identified liberals believe the monuments should remain with 51.4 percent saying they should be removed.

Last year in another SoonerPoll Quarterly, over 88 percent of likely voting Oklahomans were not offended by the term ‘redskins.’  Two years prior, the Oklahoma City School Board changed the mascot of Capitol Hill High School.  No poll of the public was conducted before its mascot change.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll.

The scientific study was conducted from August 22-28, 2017 with 404 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus a online panel from Research Now. The sample was weighted by age, political party, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a general election. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 4.81 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

Where will next year’s Republican Gubernatorial Nominee be decided?

0

Thirty years ago in Republican politics in Oklahoma, the saying used to be that the candidate who can perform best at “both ends of the Turner” can win the nomination and, when the overwhelming majority of Republicans were in both of the major cities separated by the Turner Turnpike, this was certainly the case.

But not anymore.

In the last two decades, the growth of the Republican Party in Oklahoma has been overwhelmingly in the more rural parts of the state, while Democrats have quietly and slowly grown in the more urban parts of Oklahoma City and Tulsa.

So, just how much will rural Republicans be influencing the nomination election?  According to the this analysis — a lot.

When thinking just about Republican primary voters, or those who have shown a voting behavior in the past of participating in Republican primaries, 61 percent are in 75 of the 77 total counties in the state less the more urban Oklahoma County and Tulsa County.

StateLess2Counties

Of course there are parts of counties that surround Oklahoma City and Tulsa that are more suburban in nature and would be less rural in their thinking, the point should not be lost that a substantial percentage of Republicans today are not just city dwellers anymore.

If we were to breakdown the 1,956 precincts in the state to rural, suburban or urban (defined according to the U.S. Census), we find that 49 percent of primary-voting Republicans are in rural precincts, 43.6 percent in suburban precincts, and just 7.4 percent in urban precincts.

Suburban urban and rural

We can also look at the data according to the MSA, or Metropolitan Statistical Area, which would define Oklahoma City, Tulsa, and the rest of the state as rural. This measurement would be including McClain County in the Oklahoma City MSA and Pawnee County in the Tulsa MSA, but most would agree that McClain and Pawnee County are rural by most definitions.

Still, one-in-three Republican primary votes will come next June from rural parts of the state.

MSA

In all honesty, the influence of rural Republican voters next year will be probably somewhere between 33 percent to half of all voters which is substantial and, as a voting block, could decide the run-off election on their own.

Next year’s Republican primary is shaping up as a city versus rural match-up with two candidates from Oklahoma City, two from Tulsa, and two from the more rural parts of the state.  By our calculations, one of the rural candidates needs to get only about half of the rural voters to make the run-off election, assuming the city candidates split their hometown vote in each of their respective cities.

Of course there will be rural Republicans voting for the city candidates and city Republicans voting for the rural ones, but splits between rural elected officials and city elected officials have been brewing for some time now — particularly in the state legislature.

Should this divide deepen over the next year or become more pronounced in positions taken by the candidates, rural voters might just be lining up behind their own candidates in next year’s governor’s race.

This is a part of on-going analysis performed by SoonerPoll of non-polling data in an effort to gain additional insight into the Oklahoma electorate and shifts that may be occurring.

The youth vote in Oklahoma? Not what you think.

0

Every election year, the discussion eventually turns to the youth vote, and last year was no different.  But, youth voting in Oklahoma is very much different than what you may think or find on the East Coast for example.

In Oklahoma, nearly half, or 48.7 percent, of those age 18 to 34 who voted in the 2016 general election last November were registered Republicans. While voting for a candidate of another party certainly happens in the general election, its important to at least look at the party registration as a key indicator of possible voter intent.

Voting Behavior by Party_2

Of those age 18 to 34 who voted, 32.8 percent were registered Democratic, which is six percentage points less than Democrats in the overall electorate (38.5 percent). In fact, the chart above shows that 45.6 percent of those voting over the age of 65 are Democrats and the largest percentage of any of the Democratic turnout numbers.

The analysis also shows that Republicans are outperforming Democrats overall in turnout when comparing the percentage of Republicans who voted to the comparable percentage that is registered — 50.9 percent compared to 47.6 percent registered. The percentage is same, 38.5 percent, for both Democrats who voted and among those registered.

Among Independent voters, which make up 13.8 percent of those registered to vote, the overall percentage of Independents among those who voted is less, 10.6 percent, which continues to show us that Independents vote less than their overall registration population.  The good news, however, is that Independent voters among those age 18 to 34 are turning out at a much higher rate, showing a more active voting behavior than the population of Independents overall.

Voter Behavior by Age Group

Where Oklahoma more mirrors the nation is in turnout by age groups. While 24.1 percent of registered voters are between the ages of 18 and 34, they make less than 20 percent of the electorate on election day.

Among those age 65 or older, they constitute 27.4 percent of the electorate, but only 25.7 percent of those registered.  In fact, voters over the age of 55 make up nearly half of the electorate, 48.4 percent, but only 44.7 percent of registered voters.

This is according to analysis performed by SoonerPoll of non-polling data in an effort to gain additional insight into the Oklahoma electorate and shifts that may be occurring.

What’s happening to Democratic Party voting in the state?

0

After Barack Obama was first elected president in 2008, the turnout of registered Democrats voting in presidential years has fallen off considerably in terms of all eligible Oklahomans.  What happened?

In the presidential election years from 1992 to 2008, Democrat voting was fairly consistent, either 19 or 20 percent, but suddenly it took a downward turn in 2012 to 16 percent and another two points to 14 percent in 2016.

Registered Republican turnout, on the other hand, has continued to increase overall since 1992, but it has seen its ups and downs since then.  Currently, it’s on a downward trend from a high of 37 percent in 2000 to 33 percent last year. Still, it has more than doubled that of Democrats since 1992 — 33 percent for Republicans to 14 percent for Democrats.

What this chart presents — which is most amazing– is the amount of non-voting of eligible Oklahomans.  Half of all eligible Oklahomans do not vote.

The chart presented here is not from polling data, but an analysis of voter turnout for the last seven presidential election years.  In an effort to predict the turnout on election day as close as possible, SoonerPoll performs analysis such as this to spot trends and explore more in-depth the causes to shifts in the electorate and voting behavior.

Non-voting

Oklahoma City voters want to save Oklahoma City schools

1

When it comes to considering the continuation of city taxes like the popular MAPS projects, Oklahoma City likely voters want to include funding for the city’s public schools which have experienced per pupil decreases in state funding in recent years.

 

According to the scientific study, 52 percent of likely Oklahoma City voters support using city funds to make up for state education cuts to the city’s public schools. Republicans were 61 percent of the poll’s sample and a plurality, 47 percent, supported the initiative, along with 60 percent of Democrats and 55 percent of Independents.

“Oklahoma City residents see the schools and the healthiness of the schools as critical to the vitality of the city as a whole,” said Bill Shapard, founder of SoonerPoll.  “If MAPS is going to continue, voters want the schools to be included.”

[QUESTION] Currently, funds collected by the city are NOT spent on schools or education, because it has been the sole responsibility of the state government. However, with the state leading the nation in education cuts over the last 5 years, consideration is being given to using city funds to make up for education cuts for Oklahoma City schools. Consider a city proposal, which we will refer to as the “SAVE OKLAHOMA CITY SCHOOLS PROPOSAL” for the remainder of this survey. The funds raised under this proposal would allocate 50% of the funds for per-pupil spending such as school supplies and decreasing class size and 50% on non-administrative salaries such as teachers and support staff. Would you SUPPORT or OPPOSE this city-wide initiative or proposal?

1. Strongly support 22.9%
2. Somewhat support 29.0
COMBINED SUPPORT 51.9
3. Don’t know/Refused [DNR] 21.2
4. Somewhat oppose 13.6
5. Strongly oppose 13.4
COMBINED OPPOSE 27.0

Three methods of paying for the Save Oklahoma City Schools Proposal were offered to poll respondents for consideration.  One would raise funds with a temporary allocation of a quarter cent of the MAPS tax extension.  Another would temporarily restore the tax cuts implemented at the state level from 5 percent back to 5.25 percent for a three to four year period. The last suggested method was a temporary quarter percent corporate income tax increase.

All three methods were highly popular, with 63 percent supported a portion of the MAPS tax, 60 percent supporting temporarily restoring state tax cuts, and 61 percent supporting a temporary corporate income tax.

“Oklahoma voters are typically adverse to tax increases, but this aversion is being overcome when they see the schools in their neighborhoods struggle with less funding and poorly paid teachers,” Shapard said, who went on to note that again the legislature failed to pass a teacher pay raise during this last session which is overwhelmingly popular with the electorate.

When city voters were asked to consider a list of various spending measures to be included in any MAPS extension, the Save Oklahoma City Schools Proposal was ranked third highest, just below Police and Fire departments and street maintenance and in a tie with new street construction.

Interestingly, the Save Oklahoma City Schools Proposal led in overall percentage of funding in comparison to all other spending measures when city voters were asked to allocate any MAPS extension monies.

[QUESTION] Of those selected, please tell us what percentage of the budget you would allocate to that spending priority.  Keep in mind the total must be equal to 100%. [READ IN ROTATED ORDER; AGGREGATE TOTALS PRESENTED]

1. The Save Oklahoma City Schools Proposal, which includes teacher and non-administrative pay. 32.7%
2. Police/Fire Department, which includes hiring additional police and firefighters. 30.5
3. Street construction, which includes street widenings and re-paving of existing streets 27.7
4. Street maintenance, which includes pothole repair. 27.4
5. Parks services, which includes the development of new parks, litter control and amenities for children. 19.2
6. Public transit, which includes adding buses and routes and extending days hours buses run. 18.2

Voters were also asked to choose between two proposed MAPS plans. One plan, known as MAPS for Neighborhoods, would allocate 50% toward city services, 25% toward the creation of new roads and re-paving old ones, and 25% toward the Save Oklahoma City Schools Proposal.  The other is the plan currently being proposed by Mayor Mick Cornett, which allocates 25% toward city services and 75% toward the creation of new streets and re-paving of old ones.  By a more than two-to-one margin, Oklahoma City likely voter’s choice was the MAPS for Neighborhoods, 54.4 percent to 21.8 percent.

[QUESTION] If you had to choose between these two proposed plans, the Mayor’s Plan for MAPS and the MAPS for Neighborhoods, which would you SUPPORT? [OFFER THE TWO PLANS IN ROTATED ORDER]

1. I would support the Mayor’s Plan 21.8%
2. I would support the MAPS for Neighborhoods plan 54.4
3. Neither 12.5
3. Don’t know/Refused [DNR] 11.4

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma City likely voters and were written by SoonerPoll.com.  These poll questions were commissioned by City Councilor Ed Shadid.

The scientific study was conducted from May 5 – 21, 2017 with 440 likely Oklahoma City voters for a September election, selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus a online panel from Research Now. The sample was weighted by age, political party, and gender in order to reflect the Oklahoma City likely voter population for a September election. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma City likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 4.66 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

Oklahomans soundly still believe government is wasting taxpayer monies

0

The message from state agencies and legislators over the last few months has been, for the most part, that the state has cut too much from government budgets and there is no more wasteful spending now.  But, that isn’t what Oklahomans think.

According to the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll, an overwhelming 87 percent of likely voting Oklahomans believe more efficiency can still be found in state government spending.  About six in ten likely voters strongly agreed.

[QUESTION] More efficiency can still be found in state government spending.

1. Strongly agree 60.7
2. Somewhat agree 26.4
COMBINED AGREE 87.1
3. Don’t know/Refused [DNR] 5.4
4. Somewhat disagree 5.2
5. Strongly disagree 2.3
COMBINED DISAGREE 7.5

While there was very strong agreement among Republicans in the poll, 58 percent of Democrats “strongly agreed” that more efficiency can still be found, with 87 percent is combined agreement.  Even among Independents, 68 percent agreed with 55 percent with strong agreement.

“Government has the perception of wasting taxpayers monies among all Oklahomans, regardless of party affiliation,” said Bill Shapard, founder of SoonerPoll. “Whether it’s true or not, the perception is there and in the near future, legislators and agency heads are going to have a tough time convincing them otherwise.”

Recent legislation headed to the governor’s desk for signature would conduct an independent comprehensive performance audits on the twenty agencies that receive the most in state appropriations.

“While many believe the audits will expose that agencies have suffered too much under budget cuts, voters will have a tough time believing them,” said Shapard, the senior analyst on the poll.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll.

The scientific study was conducted from February 15-21, 2017 with 408 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus a online panel from Research Now. The sample was weighted by age, political party, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a general election. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 4.59 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

Oklahomans believe wind industry should pay sales tax like everyone else

0

Wind companies currently doing business in Oklahoma are exempt from paying sales tax on new turbines but, according to the most recent SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll, Oklahomans question whether they should be exempt in the first place.

A combined 83.9 percent of likely voting Oklahomans supported the wind industry paying sales tax. Of that, 60 percent strongly supported the measure, and another 23.9 percent somewhat supported it.

[QUESTION] Currently, the wind industry is exempt from sales tax and, if they were charged sales tax like other businesses were in the state, the state could raise 67.5 million this year.  Knowing this, do you SUPPORT or OPPOSE new legislation that would require the wind industry to pay sales tax?

1. Strongly support 60.0
2. Somewhat support 23.9
COMBINED SUPPORT 83.9
3. Don’t know/No opinion/Refused [DNR] 6.4
4. Somewhat oppose 5.0
5. Strongly oppose 4.8
COMBINED OPPOSE 9.8

The average turbine costs about $2 million, which would generate about $90,000 in revenue under Oklahoma’s statewide 4.5-cent sales tax if wind companies were required to pay sales tax. Counties where wind farms are located would receive added revenue as well, depending on the size of their sales taxes.

According to Southwest Power Pool data, wind developers are expected to add about 750 new turbines in Oklahoma this year, which would mean more than $67 million in sales tax revenue for the state.

Republicans were more likely to support the requirement of wind companies paying sales tax than Democrats or Independents, although 72.4 percent of Democrats supported it and 81.6 percent of Independents.  A combined 93.7 percent of Republicans supported the requirement.

“Oklahomans are aware that the state is in nearly a $1 billion budget deficit,” said Bill Shapard, founder of SoonerPoll, “and every government exemption and giveaway is being scrutinized.”

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters and were written by SoonerPoll.com.  These poll questions were commissioned by the Windfall Coalition.

The scientific study was conducted from April 25 – May 1, 2017 with 409 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus a online panel from Research Now. The sample was weighted by age, political party, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a general election. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 4.84 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

After first 100 days, majority of Oklahoma likely voters still like Trump

0

One hundred days into his new administration, President Trump has the backing of a majority of Oklahoma likely voters, according to the most recent SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll.

Fifty-seven percent of likely voting Oklahomans had a favorable impression of him, while just more than one in three had an unfavorable opinion. This result is a few points lower than his win percentage in the state last November but within the margin of error of the poll.

“It’s probably safe to say that President Trump isn’t broadening his base after the first 100 days,” said Bill Shapard, founder of SoonerPoll.com, “But, those that voted for him seem to be sticking with him for the time being.”

By about this time into the first 100 days of former President Obama, Oklahomans had already begun to give up on him.

[QUESTION] I am going to read to you a list of individuals. For each one, please tell me whether you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE opinion. [PROBE: VERY/SOMEWHAT]  DONALD TRUMP

1. Very favorable 30.9
2. Somewhat favorable 26.4
COMBINED FAVORABLE 57.3
3. Don’t know/No opinion/Refused [DNR] 7.3
4. Somewhat unfavorable 9.5
5. Very unfavorable 26.0
COMBINED UNFAVORABLE 35.5

Looking further into the poll results, 78.2 percent of Republicans had a favorable opinion of Trump, while just under half, 49.2 percent, of Independents had one.  A little more than a third of Democrats, 34.9 percent, had a favorable opinion, but 58.7 percent had an unfavorable one.

Trump, like Obama before him, is still very polarizing when is comes to the views of Oklahomans by political ideology. Among self-identified Conservatives, 82.2 percent had a favorable view, while 77.5 percent of self-identified Liberals had an unfavorable one.  Moderates were more split but a majority, 54.8 percent, had an unfavorable view of Trump and 36.3 percent had a favorable one.

There was also significant differences among likely voting Oklahomans by age. While those 65 years and old had a much more favorable opinion at 64.9 percent, those under the age of 35 were much more split with slightly less than half favorable, yet still a plurality, towards him and 45 percent unfavorable.

“At this point only time will tell whether Trump can grow this support among more moderate voters and/or more younger voters,” Shapard said.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll.

The scientific study was conducted from April 25 – May 1, 2017 with 409 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus a online panel from Research Now. The sample was weighted by age, political party, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a general election. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 4.84 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

How unpopular is Governor Fallin? Kevin Durant is more popular.

0

One might think that former Oklahoma City Thunder player Kevin Durant, who abandoned the team to join another one just to win a championship, would be one of the most unpopular people in the Oklahoma public eye right now. But, in this highly competitive sports state, that’s not the case, particularly in comparison to Governor Mary Fallin.

More than six out of ten likely voting Oklahomans find Fallin unfavorable, while less than one in five for Durant.

[QUESTION] I am going to read to you a list of individuals. For each one, please tell me whether you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE opinion. [PROBE: VERY/SOMEWHAT]  MARY FALLIN

1. Very favorable 6.3
2. Somewhat favorable 24.8
COMBINED FAVORABLE 31.1
3. Don’t know/No opinion/Refused [DNR] 7.6
4. Somewhat unfavorable 21.2
5. Very unfavorable 40.1
COMBINED UNFAVORABLE 61.3

[QUESTION] KEVIN DURANT

1. Very favorable 12.7
2. Somewhat favorable 31.9
COMBINED FAVORABLE 44.6
3. Don’t know/No opinion/Refused [DNR] 38.0
4. Somewhat unfavorable 13.3
5. Very unfavorable 4.3
COMBINED UNFAVORABLE 17.6

Fifty-two percent of Republicans found Fallin unfavorable, while 71.6 percent of Democrats and 65.1 percent of Independents did as well.

A plurality of self-identified Conservatives, 46.9 percent, found Fallin unfavorable and 75.3 percent of Moderates.

Perhaps what could be even more saddening for the Governor is 64 percent of likely voters in the 5th Congressional District, a district she represented in Congress, viewed her unfavorably with 46.3 percent as “very unfavorable,” more than any other congressional district in the state.

[QUESTION] STATE LEGISLATURE

1. Very favorable 3.1
2. Somewhat favorable 27.1
COMBINED FAVORABLE 30.2
3. Don’t know/No opinion/Refused [DNR] 13.3
4. Somewhat unfavorable 28.3
5. Very unfavorable 28.3
COMBINED UNFAVORABLE 56.6

What may also be very telling about the depths of the Governor’s unpopularity is it’s comparison to the State Legislature as a whole which, like most evaluations of elected bodies, never scores well.

Only 56.6 percent of likely voting Oklahomans viewed the State Legislature unfavorably compared to 61.3 percent for Fallin. While only 28 percent viewed the State Legislature as “very unfavorable,” a full 40 percent viewed Fallin as “very unfavorable.”

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll.

The scientific study was conducted from April 25 – May 1, 2017 with 409 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus a online panel from Research Now. The sample was weighted by age, political party, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a general election. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 4.84 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.