After Barack Obama was first elected president in 2008, the turnout of registered Democrats voting in presidential years has fallen off considerably in terms of all eligible Oklahomans.  What happened?

In the presidential election years from 1992 to 2008, Democrat voting was fairly consistent, either 19 or 20 percent, but suddenly it took a downward turn in 2012 to 16 percent and another two points to 14 percent in 2016.

Registered Republican turnout, on the other hand, has continued to increase overall since 1992, but it has seen its ups and downs since then.  Currently, it’s on a downward trend from a high of 37 percent in 2000 to 33 percent last year. Still, it has more than doubled that of Democrats since 1992 — 33 percent for Republicans to 14 percent for Democrats.

What this chart presents — which is most amazing– is the amount of non-voting of eligible Oklahomans.  Half of all eligible Oklahomans do not vote.

The chart presented here is not from polling data, but an analysis of voter turnout for the last seven presidential election years.  In an effort to predict the turnout on election day as close as possible, SoonerPoll performs analysis such as this to spot trends and explore more in-depth the causes to shifts in the electorate and voting behavior.

Non-voting

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Bill is the founder of SoonerPoll.com and ShapardResearch, a full service market research firm based in Oklahoma City. Bill began his career in polling after working on a major campaign in Oklahoma from 1996 until founding SoonerPoll in 2004. Under Bill’s leadership, SoonerPoll has become the leading public opinion polling company in the state of Oklahoma conducting more public opinion polls for Oklahoma news media than all other pollsters combined since 2006. Bill’s commitment to go above and beyond the AAPOR ethical guidelines of minimum disclosure ensures that SoonerPoll produces quality results every time. Bill has lectured at Oklahoma State University on developing polling methodologies, data collection processes, and advanced likely voter sampling techniques. Bill also serves as an on-air political commentator for Oklahoma television stations.

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