A majority of likely voting Oklahomans oppose the impeachment and removal of the president, according to the latest SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll, and the results fall almost entirely on party lines. Still, those that “strongly” oppose impeachment and removal is 20 points greater than those that “strongly” support it.

Eightly-three percent (83.4%) of Republicans strongly oppose the impeachment and removal, whereas 60.9 percent of Democrats strongly support. Another 13.4 percent somewhat support.

Among Independents, 55.6 percent strongly support impeachment and removal, which is 21 points greater than the 34.1 percent who strongly oppose it.  Independents were also the most likely to be undecided, but not by much.

[QUESTION] Do you SUPPORT or OPPOSE the impeachment and removal of President Donald Trump from office?

1. Strongly support 31.3%
2. Somewhat support 6.8
COMBINED SUPPORT 38.1
3. No opinion/Don’t know/Refused [DNR] 6.0
4. Somewhat oppose 4.1
5. Strongly oppose 51.8
COMBINED OPPOSE 55.9

Seventy-six percent (76.6%) of self-identified liberals strongly supported impeachment and removal, whereas 80.3 percent of self-identified conservatives opposed it. Those that identify as moderates, however, were more equally split with 36.8 percent strongly supporting impeachment and removal and 39.2 percent strongly opposing it.

Forty-four percent of likely voters said they were paying a lot of attention to the impeachment hearings and coverage, with another 30.7 percent saying they were paying some attention. Additional results indicate that a plurality, 33.1 percent, were getting their news from cable news networks, and another 18.8 percent from the network television channels of ABC, CBS and NBC.

Interestingly, strong support or opposition is closely divided among those who report that they are paying a lot of attention to the impeachment hearings, 48.9 percent for in strong support and 43.4 percent of those in strong opposition. But, those paying less attention — either some, a little or not at all — are much more likely to strongly oppose impeachment and removal. Among those paying some attention, 58.2 percent strongly opposed compared to 18.2 percent strongly in support; 60.5 percent of those paying little attention strongly opposed compared to 13.1 percent who strongly supported it; and 56.1 percent strongly opposed compared to 18.5 percent who strongly supported it among those not paying any attention at all.  The amount of those who didn’t know or were undecided increased as the amount of attention paid decreased.

Many political analysts have argued that the Democrats have pursued impeachment in order to galvanize their own base going into next year’s elections and persuade moderate voters to join their cause.  These poll results show the former may be happening but the latter is not. Just over half, 51.2 percent, of Democrats reported paying a lot of attention to the impeachment hearings, compared to only 36.7 percent of Republicans. Sixty-two percent (62.2) of Independents said they were paying a lot of attention.

Nonetheless, the impeachment hearings are changing very few minds. Half of the electorate is still voting for Trump, which is the same amount when this was asked of likely voters back in July. Then, 49.8 percent reported they were voting for Trump, 32.4 percent said they were voting for the eventual Democratic nominee, and 17.8 percent were undecided.

[QUESTION] From what you have seen, read or heard about the impeachment hearings, have you changed your mind about next year’s presidential election?

1. No, I’m still voting for Trump 50.0%
2. No, I’m still voting for the eventual Democratic nominee 31.6
3. No, I’m still undecided 14.4
4. Yes, I plan on voting for Trump where I was undecided or planning on voting for the Democratic nominee before 0.8
5. Yes, I plan on voting for the Democratic nominee where I was undecided or planning on voting for Trump before 3.1

Eighty-two percent (82.3) of Republicans said they were still voting for Trump, whereas 66.1 percent of Democrats said they were still voting for the eventual Democratic nominee. Among Democrats, 16.4 percent said they were still voting for Trump.

With Independents, 19.5 percent said they were still voting for Trump and 36.8 percent said they were still voting for the eventual Democratic nominee. Just about a third, 32.6 percent, were still undecided.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll.

The scientific study was conducted from December 4-12, 2019 with 310 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus SoonerPoll’s proprietary online panel. The sample was weighted by age, political party, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a primary election. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 5.57 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

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Bill is the founder of SoonerPoll.com and ShapardResearch, a full service market research firm based in Oklahoma City. Bill began his career in polling after working on a major campaign in Oklahoma from 1996 until founding SoonerPoll in 2004. Under Bill’s leadership, SoonerPoll has become the leading public opinion polling company in the state of Oklahoma conducting more public opinion polls for Oklahoma news media than all other pollsters combined since 2006. Bill’s commitment to go above and beyond the AAPOR ethical guidelines of minimum disclosure ensures that SoonerPoll produces quality results every time. Bill has lectured at Oklahoma State University on developing polling methodologies, data collection processes, and advanced likely voter sampling techniques. Bill also serves as an on-air political commentator for Oklahoma television stations.

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