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Newson6 Exclusive Poll: Hern looks to coast to easy reelection First Congressional District

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Republican Congressman Kevin Hern is up for his first reelection and the most recent poll results are showing any weakness at all.

CLICK HERE: COMPLETE TOPLINES AND CROSSTABS

Among a sample of 1,492 likely voters in the first congressional district of Oklahoma — the largest poll ever conducted by SoonerPoll in the district — Hern led Democratic newcomer Kojo Asamoa-Ceasar by 29 points, 58.8 percent to 29.8 percent for Asamoa-Ceasar. Perennial candidate Evelyn Rogers, an Independent, had 5.6 percent and the remaining 5.8 percent were undecided.

Hern led his Democratic opponent in 2018 by just 22 points.

[QUESTION] If the upcoming November GENERAL election for your U.S. House seat was held today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now and had to make a choice, for whom would you vote?

1. Kevin Hern, the Republican 58.8%
2. Kojo Asamoa-Ceasar, the Democrat 29.8
3. Evelyn L. Rogers, an Independent 5.6
4. Undecided 5.8

Hern outperformed both President Donald Trump and U.S. Senator Jim Inhofe in their respective races, with Trump garnering 55.8 percent of the vote in his race with Biden and Inhofe getting 54.4 percent in his.

Slightly more than 88 percent of Republicans support Hern in his reelection and 15.4 percent of Democrats.  Independent voters were more evenly split with Asamoa-Ceasar getting 38.9 percent to Hern’s 31.9 percent. Independents make up only 11.7 percent of the electorate on election day.

Hern led among women likely voters, 56.5 percent to 29.4 percent, and among men likely voters with 61.6 percent to 30.2 percent for Asamoa-Ceasar.

Every age group supported Hern by double digits except those under the age of 34 who supported Asamoa-Ceasar 54.4 percent to 35.2 percent for Hern. Those under the age of 34 only make up about 8 percent of the electorate in the first congressional district.

Among those over the age of 65, Hern led by an overwhelming 33.1 percent. Those over the age of 65 make up the largest age group of the electorate with 37 percent.

Over 21 percent of likely voters in the first congressional district reported their intention to vote by absentee this year of a post-pandemic which is more than four times the number in 2018.

One-in-three likely voters also reported their intent to vote straight Republican this year which is almost double of those reporting their intent to vote straight Democratic.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, conducted the poll of Oklahoma likely voters for a general election.  The poll was commissioned by News9 in Oklahoma City and Newson6 in Tulsa.

The scientific study was conducted October 15-20, 2020 with 5466 likely voters selected at random statewide from a dual-frame of cell phones and landline telephones. Cell phone participants were texted a link to conduct the poll on their phones and landline participants were collected using IVR (Interactive Voice Response) technology. The sample was weighted by political party, age, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’  The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ±1.32 percent.

A complete description of the methodology can be found here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

Likely voting Oklahomans oppose a ban on fracking

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The banning of “fracking,” or the hydraulic fracturing technique used in the drilling of 90 percent of all new wells, was front and center last night in the final presidential debate between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.

CLICK HERE: COMPLETE TOPLINES AND CROSSTABS

Trump went on to remind voters that Biden is going to destroy the oil and gas industry, mentioning the state by name, “Will you remember that, Oklahoma?”

According to the most recent SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll, 54.3 percent oppose a ban on fracking or fossil fuel leases on public lands and ending the export of fossil fuels.

[QUESTION] Do you SUPPORT or OPPOSE a ban on fracking, fossil fuel leases on public lands, and ending the exports of coal, natural gas and crude oil?

1. Strongly support 15.9%
2. Somewhat support 15.6
COMBINED SUPPORT 31.5
3. Neutral/don’t know/no opinion [DNR] 14.2
4. Somewhat oppose 14.4
5. Strongly oppose 39.9
COMBINED OPPOSE 54.3

During the debate, Biden said he has never said he opposed fracking and then went on to say that he has ruled out banning fracking when prompted by the moderator, although video from the Democratic debates in March and July, 2019 clearly shows he wants to ban fracking on federal or public lands and slowly or eventually move away from it entirely.  Another compilation video is here as well.

While more than 65 percent of Republicans oppose a ban on fracking, nearly half (47.7 percent) of Democrats in Oklahoma support it.  Independents, however, side with Republicans with 62.5 percent opposing a ban.

Among Biden voters, 30.3 percent oppose a ban on fracking while 57.8 percent support it, meaning Biden could potentially lose as much as one third of his base in Oklahoma if he does truly support the ban of fracking, or nearly 60 percent of his voters if he doesn’t support a ban.

Large majorities of voters under the age of 34 in Oklahoma oppose a ban of fracking, perhaps indicating they see the oil and gas industry, directly or indirectly, important to their future careers or important to the state’s economy in general.

More than 56 percent of those over the age of 65 oppose a ban on fracking as well.

In 2009 just after Obama and Biden won the White House, a poll showed most Oklahomans agreed that their prospective energy policies were harmful to Oklahoma.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll.

The scientific study was conducted from August 13-31, 2020 with 379 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus SoonerPoll’s proprietary online panel. The sample was weighted by age, political party, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a primary election. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ±5.03 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

News9 Exclusive Poll: Horn leads Bice by a hair, while internal poll numbers give both camps some hope

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in 2018, this congressional race was decided by one-half of one percent and 2020 looks like it will be no different.

CLICK HERE: COMPLETE TOPLINES AND CROSSTABS

Democratic Congresswoman Kendra Horn leads Republican State Senator Stephanie Bice by just 1.8 percentage points in a poll of 943 likely voting participants, the largest of any polls SoonerPoll has ever done in this congressional district.

Conventional wisdom is that the undecideds typically break for the challenger which bodes well for Bice who could win by the slimmest of margins, but some other internal numbers make a better case for Horn.

Trump and Biden are tied at 47 a piece among 5th congressional district likely voters and Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Abby Broyles is edging out the Republican incumbent, U.S. Senator Jim Inhofe, by 1.4 percentage points.

Horn is also getting 15 percent of the Republican vote while losing 9.2 percent of Democrats to Bice, meaning she has a net positive 5.8-point crossover vote advantage in a district that Republicans lead Democrats by 11.5 points, 49.9 percent to 38.4 percent.

Independents also heavily favor Horn 69.8 percent to just 19.6 percent for Bice. Just over ten percent are undecided and if they break proportionally the advantage goes to Horn.

[QUESTION] If the upcoming November GENERAL election for your U.S. House seat was held today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now and had to make a choice, for whom would you vote?

1. Kendra Horn, the Democrat 48.8%
2. Stephanie Bice, the Republican 47.0
3. Undecided 4.2

In the primary election, Horn led among absentee voters with more than twenty thousand while the entire Republican primary field, combined, only had slightly more than ten thousand, meaning Horn goes into election day with roughly a ten thousand vote advantage before the polls even open.  Other analysis shows Democratic groups in Oklahoma County have been very active signing up their base with absentee voting long before the pandemic hit earlier this year.

This year, nearly a third of all 5th district likely voters report they will be voting by absentee, which is 13 points higher than the statewide percent. Among Democrats, those reporting to be voting by absentee is nearly forty percent in the 5th district.  Republicans trail with 25.9 percent but this is impressive considering only 13 percent of Republicans will be voting absentee statewide.

Bice is doing better with male likely voters than in previous polling which is a good sign for her, but she only leads with three percentage points, 49.5 percent to 46.5 percent for Horn.  Men voters typically are more conservative and favor Republican candidates with pocketbook issues.

Horn is leading with women likely voters, 50.6 percent to 44.9 percent, which is typical for Democratic candidates, but the lead is nearly six percentage points.

Horn is performing extremely well with young voters with 68.9 percent among those under the age of 34 to Bice’s 26.3 percent. This age subset makes up only ten percent of the electorate. But, Bice leads among the largest block of voters, those over the age of 50 by eight percentage points. Those over the age of 50 make up 63 percent of the electorate.

Moderate voters, who make up slight more than one-fifth of the electorate, favor Horn 78 percent to 19 percent for Bice.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, conducted the poll of Oklahoma likely voters for a general election.  The poll was commissioned by News9 in Oklahoma City and Newson6 in Tulsa.

The scientific study was conducted October 15-20, 2020 with 5466 likely voters selected at random statewide from a dual-frame of cell phones and landline telephones. Cell phone participants were texted a link to conduct the poll on their phones and landline participants were collected using IVR (Interactive Voice Response) technology. The sample was weighted by political party, age, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’  The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ±1.32 percent.

A complete description of the methodology can be found here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

News9/Newson6 Exclusive Poll: Inhofe leads Broyles by 20 points in U.S. Senate race

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U.S. Sen. Jim Inhofe, R-Okla., greets Staff Sgt. Joshua O’Dell during a visit with Airmen from the 552nd Air Control Wing Jan. 15. Sergeant O’Dell, from Oklahoma City, is a Computers/Electronic Warfare Craftsman with the 552nd Maintenance Squadron. He leads a four-member C/EW team that accomplishes scheduled and unscheduled maintenance on 27 E-3s valued at $8.9 billion. During his visit to Tinker, Senator Inhofe received an update on the KC-46A beddown, toured the new 966th Airborne Air Control Squadron location in Bldg. 201 and met with several Airmen, including Sergeant O’Dell, who had just returned from a recent deployment. (Air Force photo by Darren D. Heusel)

Republican U.S. Senator Jim Inhofe has a substantial lead over his Democratic rival, Abby Broyles, in the U.S. Senate race that many have said might very well be Inhofe’s final run for office. Inhofe would be 86 years old if re-elected and would be 92 at the end of the term. If he is able to complete this possible upcoming term, he would be the third oldest to serve in the senate in U.S. history.

The poll, which had a statewide sample of 5,466 likely voters — the largest statewide poll ever conducted by SoonerPoll — showed Inhofe was getting 85.5 percent of his Republican base of support and picking up 20.8 percent of support from Democrats. Independents, who make about ten percent of the electorate, favored Broyles 53.8 percent to 31 percent for Inhofe.

[QUESTION] If the upcoming November GENERAL election for your U.S. Senate seat was held today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now and had to make a choice, for whom would you vote?

1. Jim Inhofe, the Republican 56.4%
2. Abby Broyles, the Democrat 36.9
3. All other candidates 2.4
3. Undecided 4.3

Inhofe dominated among male likely voters with 60.5 percent to 33.9 percent for Broyles, and still led his female rival among women 53 percent to 39.4 percent for Broyles.

Inhofe led in every age group except those under the age of 34 who slightly favored Broyles 47.7 percent to 42.3 percent. Those under the age of 34 only make up about eight percent of the electorate.

Moderates favored Broyles 65.1 percent to 27.4 percent, but Inhofe won decisively among self-identified conservative voters who make up more than half of the electorate on election day.

In the 5th congressional district, however, Inhofe is slightly losing to Broyles 46 percent to 47.4 percent for Broyles. The 5th congressional district is currently represented by Democrat Kendra Horn and has been trending Democratic in the last few election cycles.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, conducted the poll of Oklahoma likely voters for a general election.  The poll was commissioned by News9 in Oklahoma City and Newson6 in Tulsa.

The scientific study was conducted October 15-20, 2020 with 5,466 likely voters selected at random statewide from a dual-frame of cell phones and landline telephones. Cell phone participants were texted a link to conduct the poll on their phones and landline participants were collected using IVR (Interactive Voice Response) technology. The sample was weighted by political party, age, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’  The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ±1.32 percent.

A complete description of the methodology can be found here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

Large majority of Oklahoma likely voters believe the GOP will do a better job in restoring the economy

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If the Republican Party hadn’t already establish it’s perception of economic growth and prosperity among the voters, then Donald Trump certainly did.

CLICK HERE: COMPLETE TOPLINES AND CROSSTABS

An overwhelming 89 percent of Republicans believe their own party is the best in bringing back the economy, but Democrats see their own party as the best with 59.8 percent.

Still, 28.1 percent of Democrats believe the GOP is the one that can restore the economy to its pre-coronavirus condition.  This percentage of Democrats, roughly between twenty and thirty percent, seems to be a common amount seen in other questions, from their support of Trump to their unfavorable view of Joe Biden, meaning that is roughly one-in-four Democrats that are more than likely conservative and like Trump and the Republicans.

[QUESTION] Which political party do you believe will do a better job in bringing the economy back to its pre-coronavirus pandemic state?

1. The Democratic Party 28.9%
2. The Republican Party 61.4
3. Refused [DNR] 9.7

Half of Independent voters believe its the Republican Party that is best equipment to restore the economy, but slightly more than one-in-three, 36.5 percent, believe its the Democratic Party.

Self-identified moderates are nearly evenly split with 40.8 percent saying the Democratic Party and 39.7 percent with the Republican Party.

Naturally, those voting for Trump believe overwhelmingly that the Republicans can bring back the economy, with 94.7 percent, and those voting for Biden overwhelmingly believe the Democrats can do it with 81.1 percent.

Among those that believed the Democrats were best to bring back the economy, half of them had a favorable view of socialism.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll.

The scientific study was conducted from August 13-31, 2020 with 379 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus SoonerPoll’s proprietary online panel. The sample was weighted by age, political party, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a primary election. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ±5.03 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

‘Medicare for All,’ a Democratic healthcare initiative, not popular in Oklahoma

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Fixing healthcare may not be at the top of voters minds right now, or a major issue going into the November election, but it will be one after the election is over.

CLICK HERE: COMPLETE TOPLINES AND CROSSTABS

One proposed plan from the Democratic side, particularly Bernie Sanders and his supporters, is changing to a single-payer system that would coverage all Americans but require the elimination of practically all private healthcare in the country.

In Oklahoma, likely voters are not impressed according to the latest Quarterly Poll. While nearly one-in-three support the proposal, 61.1 percent oppose the healthcare expansion with 47.5 percent strongly opposing it.

[QUESTION] ‘Medicare for All’ is a single-payer health care system that would provide healthcare to everyone in the United States with no premium or deductibles. Proponents say it is a right and that enrolling everyone in one plan is the best way to ensure universal coverage, especially for the economic vulnerable, and would free Americans to change jobs without losing coverage. Critics say it does away with nearly all private insurance, will cost as much as $3.5 trillion dollars a year, create longer waits and less medical specialists, and all run by a federal government that has trouble running the post office. Knowing this, do you SUPPORT or OPPOSE Medicare for All?

1. Strongly support 20.2%
2. Somewhat support 11.5
COMBINED SUPPORT 31.7
3. Neutral/Don’t know/No opinion 7.2
4. Somewhat oppose 13.6
5. Strongly oppose 47.5
COMBINED OPPOSE 61.1

Among Republicans, an overwhelming 82.5 percent opposed the Democratic plan. With Democrats, 50.3 percent supported the plan but 38.7 percent opposed the plan from their own party. Independents were more likely to support the plan with 59.4 percent, and 30.5 percent opposing it.

As expected, self-identified liberals overwhelmingly support the plan and self-identified conservatives overwhelmingly oppose it, but among moderates 35.6 percent support it, 47.2 percent oppose it and 17.1 percent don’t know enough about it to form an opinion at this time.

Among Biden supporters, 23.4 percent opposed the plan with 67.9 percent supporting it, although Biden does not support the plan.

Kamala Harris, Biden’s vice presidential running mate, supports the plan. Trump and Pence oppose the Medicare for All plan.

Men are slightly more likely than women to oppose the plan.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll.

The scientific study was conducted from August 13-31, 2020 with 379 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus SoonerPoll’s proprietary online panel. The sample was weighted by age, political party, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a primary election. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ±5.03 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

Oklahoma likely voters don’t want to defund the police, or even cut police budgets

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As opposed to Minneapolis, there is no rush to defund the police departments, or even cut their budgets in Oklahoma, according to the latest Quarterly poll.

CLICK HERE: COMPLETE TOPLINES AND CROSSTABS

With nearly half of all likely voters in the state ‘strongly opposed’ to providing less monies to police departments and directing the funds toward more community-based services, there was 63.2 percent in combined opposition to the idea.

When asked about defunding the police completely, 86.6 percent opposed it with a whooping 76.4 percent ‘strongly opposed.’ Previously release results showed that a large majority of likely voters had a favorable view of the their local police department.

[QUESTION] Do you SUPPORT or OPPOSE a plan that PROVIDES LESS MONIES to police and directs those funds toward social justice programs, social services or youth services?

1. Strongly support 13.6%
2. Somewhat support 16.5
COMBINED SUPPORT 30.1
3. Neutral/Don’t know/No opinion 6.8
4. Somewhat oppose 14.2
5. Strongly oppose 49.0
COMBINED OPPOSE 63.2

Republicans were more likely to oppose the idea of defunding or even cutting police budgets than Democrats or Independents. Among Democrats, 79.3 percent opposed defunding the police, but only 46.2 percent opposed cutting police budgets. Forty percent of Democrats supported the idea of cutting police budgets to support more community-based services.

Among Independents, the percentage of support for cutting police budgets was higher with 73.1 percent in combined support, but keep in mind a large majority of Independents are below the age of 45 and are more open to experimentation.

A large majority of Democrats do not believe in completely defunding the police, with 79.3 percent opposing that idea. Among Independents, it was 76.9 percent.

Another large majority, 71.6 percent of likely voters, agreed that cutting police budgets would lead to more crime. While 90 percent of Republicans agreed with this statement, only 58 percent of Democrats did and 32.7 percent, or nearly one-in-three Democrats disagreed that cutting police budgets would lead to more crime.

[QUESTION] Do you AGREE or DISAGREE that cutting police budgets will lead to more crime.

1. Strongly agree 56.0%
2. Somewhat agree 15.6
COMBINED AGREE 71.6
3. Neutral/Don’t know/No opinion 7.0
4. Somewhat disagree 12.1
5. Strongly disagree 9.3
COMBINED DISAGREE 21.4

Among Biden voters, 59 percent supported cutting police budgets and 43.3 percent disagreed that cutting those budgets would lead to increased crime.

Young voters, those under the age of 45, were most likely to support taking monies from police budgets to fund more social justice programs or social services. Majorities of every age group, however, opposed defunding the police completely.

There was very little observed differences between the views of men and women on this set of questions.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll.

The scientific study was conducted from August 13-31, 2020 with 379 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus SoonerPoll’s proprietary online panel. The sample was weighted by age, political party, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a primary election. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ±5.03 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

Trump favorability remains steady, Biden is very unfavorable among likely voters

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President Donald Trump speaks inside the Vehicle Assembly Building following the launch of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket carrying the company's Crew Dragon spacecraft on NASA’s SpaceX Demo-2 mission with NASA astronauts Robert Behnken and Douglas Hurley onboard, Saturday, May 30, 2020, at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. NASA’s SpaceX Demo-2 mission is the first launch with astronauts of the SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft and Falcon 9 rocket to the International Space Station as part of the agency’s Commercial Crew Program. The test flight serves as an end-to-end demonstration of SpaceX’s crew transportation system. Behnken and Hurley launched at 3:22 p.m. EDT on Saturday, May 30, from Launch Complex 39A at the Kennedy Space Center. A new era of human spaceflight is set to begin as American astronauts once again launch on an American rocket from American soil to low-Earth orbit for the first time since the conclusion of the Space Shuttle Program in 2011. Photo Credit: (NASA/Bill Ingalls)

Republicans and Democrats in Oklahoma are digging in as the November election approaches. Oklahoma, still a red state, continues to show its favorability of Donald Trump, neither gaining nor losing support over the last couple of years. Joe Biden, however, finds himself right where Barrack Obama left off in his favorability.

TRUMP FAVORABILITY AMONG ALL LIKELY VOTERS

Biden, however, has half of the Oklahoma electorate rating him as ‘very unfavorable,’ with a combined unfavorable of 61.5 percent.  His favorables are at 35 percent, which is just where Barrack Obama was in the summer of 2016.

This would indicate that at a statewide level, neither the Democrats nor Republicans have changed many minds over the last fours in Oklahoma. Division and divisiveness has turned to stalemate.

[QUESTION] Do you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE opinion of JOE BIDEN?

1. Very favorable 17.5%
2. Somewhat favorable 17.5
3. Neutral/no opinion 3.5
4. Somewhat unfavorable 11.8
5. Very unfavorable 49.7

Among Republicans, Trump is extremely high with 88.7 percent combined favorable. Among Democrats and Independents, however, the president struggles with only 26.1 percent combined favorable with Democrats, and 28.3 percent with Independents. This is much less than what Trump had after his first 100 days in office when 49.2 percent of Independents and 34.9 percent of Democrats had favorable views of him.

Biden is not liked by many Republicans, only 6.7 percent had a favorable impression of him. Among those of his own party, Biden was only favorable with 68.8 percent, another 27.8 percent found him to be unfavorable.

Independents were more split on their view of Biden with 50.6 percent favorable and 40.5 percent unfavorable. Moderates were also more split on Biden with 52.4 percent favorable and 40.8 percent unfavorable.

As expected, if the respondent was optimistic about the next six months they were more than likely favorable toward Trump, and if they were pessimistic they were more than likely favorable toward Biden.

Among those over the age of 65, who make up nearly forty percent of the electorate, 55.9 percent were favorable towards Trump, and 40.7 percent were favorable toward Biden.

While there was little differences of the two candidates by sex, 41.2 percent of women were ‘very favorable’ towards Trump and only 31.7 percent were ‘very favorable’ towards Biden, meaning Trump leads by ten points among women in favorability.

Interestingly, among likely voters that were married, 62.2 percent were favorable toward Trump, while only 32.4 percent were favorable towards Biden. Trump even led among those that were single with 51.2 percent favorable, and 41.3 percent favorable toward Biden.

Trump performed similarly in both Oklahoma City and Tulsa metro area, with 51.4 percent favorables among Tulsa metro voters.  Biden was slightly more favorable in Oklahoma City than in Tulsa, with 43.5 percent favorables in Oklahoma City and 36.9 percent in Tulsa.

Trump led by a large margin in the rural areas of the state with 68.4 percent favorable to 27 percent for Biden.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll.

The scientific study was conducted from August 13-31, 2020 with 379 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus SoonerPoll’s proprietary online panel. The sample was weighted by age, political party, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a primary election. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ±5.03 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

Oklahomans very favorable with their Police, but with Black Lives Matter, results are mixed

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Black Lives Matter protests, PHOTO by John Lucia

There is a sharp difference among Oklahoma likely voters when it comes to their views on their local police and the organized group, Black Lives Matter (BLM), which has been holding protests across the United States.

CLICK HERE: COMPLETE TOPLINES AND CROSSTABS

According to the most recent poll, 85.8 percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of their local police department, of which 60.8 percent have a ‘very favorable view, but only 40.5 percent have a combined favorable view of Black Lives Matter, with nearly half, 49.8 percent, having a combined unfavorable opinion.

In 2015, 81 percent had a favorable opinion of their local police or sheriff’s office.

Among likely voters by party, the poll results take an even more divergent direction. While 57.3 percent of Republicans had a ‘very unfavorable’ opinion of Black Lives Matter, only 15.4 percent of Democrats did.  While 34.3 percent of Democrats had a ‘very favorable’ opinion of BLM, only 5.5 percent of Republicans did.

[QUESTION] Do you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE opinion of the group Black Lives Matter? [RESULTS BELOW OF REPUBLICANS ONLY]

1. Very favorable 5.5%
2. Somewhat favorable 12.4
3. Neutral/no opinion 8.6
4. Somewhat unfavorable 16.2
5. Very unfavorable 57.3

[QUESTION]Do you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE opinion of the group Black Lives Matter? [RESULTS BELOW OF DEMOCRATS ONLY]

1. Very favorable 34.3%
2. Somewhat favorable 31.2
3. Neutral/no opinion 11.3
4. Somewhat unfavorable 7.9
5. Very unfavorable 15.4

Likely voters were also asked if they thought that police departments were racist institutions. Among Republicans, 78.4 percent strongly disagreed, whereas only 35.7 percent of Democrats strongly disagreed. A plurality of Democrats, 40.9 percent, agreed with the statement that ‘police departments are racist institutions.’

Moderate likely voters, naturally, were much more down the middle with regard to views of local police and BLM. A strong majority, 85.7 percent, had a favorable view of their local police, and 58.6 percent had a favorable opinion of Black Lives Matter. Moderates, however, did not believe that police departments are racist institutions with 60.7 percent disagreeing and 30.6 percent agreeing with the statement.

White likely voters had an overwhelming favorable view of their local police at 86.2 percent. A majority of Black or African American likely voters also had a favorable view of their local police at 55.2 percent, with 40.1 points of that ‘somewhat favorable.’

Black or African American likely voters had an overwhelming favorable view of BLM at 82.3 percent, but just half of White likely voters had an unfavorable opinion at 50.1 percent. Among Whites, 40.1 percent had a favorable opinion of Black Lives Matter.

A majority of Blacks, 58.2 percent, agreed with the statement that ‘police departments are racist institutions.’

No significant differences were observed among the views of men and women with regard to their views of the local police or the group Black Lives Matter.

It should be noted that some small sample sizes among racial groups was used in this analysis, the margin of error for these subsets is extremely high, and caution should be used when drawing inferences from the data.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll.

The scientific study was conducted from August 13-31, 2020 with 379 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus SoonerPoll’s proprietary online panel. The sample was weighted by age, political party, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a primary election. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ±5.03 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

PHOTO by John Lucia

ANALYSIS: The rise of absentee voting in Oklahoma County and the 5th Congressional District and it’s impact on polling

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Absentee voting, by the simplest of definitions, means a voter may not be able to get to the polls on election day and therefore requests to vote “absentee.” There may be a variety of reasons to vote absentee, but most are planned travel away from their regular polling place or a physical disability that would keep them from getting to their polling place.

Interestingly, absentee voting has been growing for the last THREE election cycles in the 5th Congressional District (CD5), particularly Oklahoma County. In 2018, the amount of people voting by absentee in CD5 was nearly DOUBLE the statewide average. For comparison, absentee voting in CD5 was more than DOUBLE that of CD1, a similar urban/suburban district that makes up the Tulsa metro area.

So, what is going on? It certainly is not from a sudden explosion in the number of voters with physical impairments or sudden out-of-town trips by Oklahoma County residents. Could it be the result of one party’s various political organizations in the county working to manipulate the absentee voting exceptions designed to assist voters, for their own political gain?

 Here are the numbers: Percentage of those voting by absentee in the state versus the five congressional districts, by election year.

November election Statewide CD1 CD2 CD3 CD4 CD5
2018 (midterm) 5.7% 4.7% 3.3% 4.8% 6.1% 9.5%
2016 (presidential) 6.9 –* 4.0 5.8 8.0 10.9
2014 (midterm) 3.1 –* 2.2 2.9 3.1 4.5

*No general election contest

The numbers show a slight increase since 2014 in the congressional districts that had a race in the general election in November of that year.  All of the numbers of absentees increased for the presidential election year and then fell for a midterm election year, but the numbers really took off in CD5, more than doubling from 2014 to 2016 and remained the highest of congressional district in 2018 by as much of a 50 percent increase to more than double or near triple the others.

So where are these increases of absentees coming from in CD5? Consider this: in the 2020 primary election this past June, more than 31,000 voters voted absentee in CD5 primaries.  Democrats more than doubled Republicans in absentee votes with 21,841 to the Republicans’ 10,141.  Among all votes cast in the Democratic primary for CD5, a whopping 31.1 percent of them came from absentees, where among the Republicans, it was only 14.9 percent.  This means that Democrats could go into the general election this November, possibly, with more than a 10,000 vote advantage before the polls even open on election day.

According to these numbers it would appear that Democratic political organizations in Oklahoma County have had an aggressive plan to sign up as many voters as possible to vote absentee over the past three election cycles, whether they can or can’t make it to the polls on election day.

 Here are the numbers: Percentage of those voting absentee and in-person in CD5, by political party.

2020 Primary election in CD5 Among all absentees Among all  in-person ALL voters
Republican 30.2% 54.6% 48.7%
Democrat 59.1 36.8 42.4
Independent 10.7 8.5 8.9

In 2018, Congresswoman Kendra Horn won a very close race in CD5 returning the district to the Democrat column for the first time in 43 years. Results show that she won by just 1.4 percent, but had in-person voting on election day determined the outcome, she would have lost by one quarter of one percent. She won by beating incumbent Republican Steve Russell in absentee votes by 6.2 percent and early voting by 13.7 percent.

These numbers also showed an advantage in absentee voting also helped Democrats in Oklahoma County pick up state senate and state house seats where Republicans still hold the advantage in registration.

Statewide, there is further evidence from the June primary as well that shows absentee balloting is having an impact on election outcomes.  State Question 814, which expanded Medicaid in Oklahoma, was overwhelmingly supported by Democrats and a plurality of Republicans opposed it in early polling. On election day, 22.3 percent of the total ‘YES’ vote came from absentee voting, and only 5.5 percent of the total ‘NO’ vote came from absentees. In fact, had in-person voting only determined the outcome of the state question, the ‘YES’ would have lost by nearly 50,000 votes statewide or nearly nine percent.

So, what do these absentee voters look like? Among Democrats voting in the primary election in June, 61.8 percent were women and 38.2 percent were men.  This compares to 55.4 percent of women for Republicans and 44.6 percent Republican men. The Republican profile is much similar to the profile of all voters in the primary, so there appears to be a greater push among Democrats to get women to vote more by absentee.

 Here are the numbers: Percentage of absentee voters of gender and age group in CD5, by political party.

2020 Primary election in CD5 Women Men Under 65 65+
Republican 55.4% 44.6% 48.5% 51.5%
Democrat 61.8 38.2 56.0 44.0
Independent 49.4 50.6 73.0 27.0

Among Democrats voting absentee, 56 percent were 64 and younger, with 44 percent 65 and older.  Among Republicans, 48.5 percent were 64 and younger and 51.5 percent 65 and older. While absentee voting among Republicans was much more evenly split between the two groups, Democrats were eight points more than Republicans among the younger group. Interestingly, 73 percent of Independent who voted by absentee were under the age of 65, but keep in mind the vast majority (89.7%) of all independents in CD5 are under the age of 65.

(Some of these results and percentage may not be 100 percent accurate because not all votes can be traced back to the voters in Oklahoma County because Oklahoma and Tulsa County election boards are exempted by the state from performing this task in updating their voter histories).

It has become apparent from this analysis that Democratic groups and organizations, particularly those in Oklahoma County, see the absentee process as a political tool to ‘bank’ a large portion of their vote early in the election process, thereby concentrating greater resources in the remaining weeks of the election on those determined to vote in-person.

This strategy known as ‘ballot collection,’ as well as ‘ballot harvesting,’ is a growing political strategy that Democrats, particularly, have effectively used in California in 2018 in Orange County, for example, to win congressional seats long-held by Republicans.

Just this year, the Oklahoma legislature passed a new law officially defining ballot harvesting and creating new criminal penalties for these acts, although there has been a ‘chain of custody’ law on the books for decades. In neighboring Texas, it has been illegal to collect ballots on behalf of others since 2013. Texas state law also makes it a misdemeanor to give or receive compensation for collecting mail-in ballots in any election.

So, how is this increase of absentee voting affecting pre-election polling? Could those voting absentee not show up in polling results? Right now, voter file statistics show us that, among Democrats in CD5, 88.3 percent have a voter score that would have made them eligible to be polled by SoonerPoll using our ‘likely voter modeling’ based on prior voting behavior. Among Republicans in CD5, 93.4 percent would have been eligible. This indicates that, at this time, non-voting or near non-voting registered voters — or those who would not necessarily show up in our pool of likely voters — are a very small portion of those voting by absentee, and therefore are not adversely impacting our ability to sample among all likely voters.

This is important as that every pollster must do their best to reduce ‘coverage bias,’ or those who may be left out of the population of interest and selected at random, in public opinion research.

But now we have the Coronavirus Pandemic. Whether Republicans were or are now aware of Democrats working to increase absentee voting for the past two election cycles in Oklahoma County, it is now a moot issue as both parties are aggressively working to assist voters in getting absentee ballots that want one because of the pandemic.  Although the Republicans are now having to play catch-up.

Republicans saw in the primary election in June thousands of likely primary voters stay home and not vote largely because of the pandemic. It remains to be seen if Republicans can equalize the current Democratic advantage in just one election cycle, therefore in polling CD5, SoonerPoll has weighted the results of Democrat voters HIGHER given the current vote turnout advantage.

The concern for polling is, ‘will the push to move more and more voters to absentee ballots include voters who, while they may be registered, do not have a traditional voting pattern that would identify them as a likely voter?’ If so, the universe of likely voters would expand and may not be taken into account when pollsters are building their probability sample.

SoonerPoll is doing everything it can to monitor the absentee activity and adjust our turnout models accordingly.

In conclusion, encouraging voters to vote absentee, regardless of their ability to vote in-person on election day, is not illegal, but we must ask ourselves, ‘is the absentee voting exception designed to assist voters or political parties?’