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Exclusive News9/Newson6 Poll: On lifting coronavirus restrictions, Oklahomans plan a slow return

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As Oklahoma governor Kevin Stitt and President Donald Trump push to open back up public places and businesses, nearly half of all Oklahomans say they plan a much slower return to public places until a vaccine or other medicines are identified to combat the virus.

CLICK HERE FOR A COMPLETE TOPLINE AND CROSSTAB REPORT

Just over one-in-five Oklahomans plan to get out and resume their pre-pandemic behavior as before, and another 18 percent plan to do the same but wear a mask or other protective gear. Interestingly, 4.5 percent plan on not getting out at all.

[QUESTION] When stay-at-home or shelter-at-home restrictions are eventually lifted, and public places, restaurants, bars, sports arenas and businesses open back up, which best fits your opinion?

1. I will get out and resume my pre-pandemic behavior as before 21.5%
2. I will get out and resume my pre-pandemic behavior as before, but wear a mask or other protective gear 18.0
3. I will get out LESS than my pre-pandemic behavior until a vaccine or other medicines are identified to combat the virus 49.2
4. I will not get out at all 4.5
5. Unsure 6.8

Oklahomans expressed great concern about the spread of the coronavirus with 43.2 percent ‘very concerned’ and another 42.6 percent just concerned.  Only 10.8 percent were not concerned at all.

Oklahomans do appear to be enjoying the time spent at home during the shelter-at-home orders from city and state officials.  More than one-in-four (25.7 percent) said the time by themselves or with family was ‘very enjoyable,’ and another 35.7 percent said the time was somewhat enjoyable.  Only 17.6 percent expressed it was ‘somewhat stressful’ and 2.8 percent as ‘very stressful.’

[QUESTION] How would you best describe the time spent at home during the coronavirus pandemic, either by yourself or with family?

1. Very enjoyable 25.7%
2. Somewhat enjoyable 35.7
3. Neutral/ no difference 18.3
4. Somewhat stressful 17.6
5. Very stressful 2.8

When asked about wearing protective gear in public, 59 percent of Oklahomans said they would wear it with no problems, another 21.1 percent said they would wear it with no problems but won’t be happy about it.  If mandated to wear protective gear in public, 19.2 percent of Oklahomans said they would probably go out less.

[QUESTION] If officials mandate that everyone must wear a mask or other protective gear in public, which best fits your opinion?

1. I will wear it with no problems 59.0%
2. I will wear it, but not without being unhappy about it 21.1
3. The mandate will limit my desire to go out in public and will probably go out less 19.2
4. I will NOT go out at all if it is mandated 0.8

Still, 70 percent of Oklahoma believe the coronavirus is a real threat, and that the coronavirus pandemic is more harmful to them and their family than the restrictions placed on them not to work, shop or travel.

[QUESTION] At this point, which is more harmful to you and your family?

1. The coronavirus and the pandemic 70.6%
2. The restrictions placed on us to not work, shop or travel 29.4

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of the general population of Oklahoma residents.  The poll was commissioned by News9 and Newson6 in Tulsa.

The scientific study was conducted from April 22-27, 2020 with 599 Oklahomans selected at random statewide from ShapardResearch’s own online panel of Oklahomans. SoonerPoll is a brand of ShapardResearch.

The sample was weighted by age, race, and gender. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’  The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 4.0 percent.

A complete description of the methodology can be found here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

Biden slightly leads Bloomberg in a race that is, more than likely, changing by the day

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Joe_Biden_Rally_Photo_by_Phil_Roeder
Joe_Biden_Rally_Photo_by_Phil_Roeder

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads the pack ever so slightly in a run-up to the Democratic Presidential Primary set for March 3rd, although the polls are seeing primary voters changing their minds almost on a daily basis.

CLICK HERE: to download the complete toplines and crosstabs.

Mike Bloomberg led in a poll conducted in Oklahoma by another pollster, but that poll was conducted before his disastrous debate performance in Nevada and a couple of bad press days after racists and sexists remarks from the past surfaced.

Interestingly, Bernie Sanders, who won the state of Oklahoma during the 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary, is trailing in a distant third place, possibly revealing even more evidence that Oklahoma Democrats voted for Sanders in 2016 — not because of his more socialists views — but because he was the only other choice to Hillary Clinton.

Bernie Sanders was the leading vote choice of self-identified liberal voters with 24.9 percent. Mike Bloomberg was the leading vote choice of self-identified moderates. And, Joe Biden was the leading vote choice of self-identified conservatives, but was the second choice of both liberals and moderates, helping give him the narrow lead at the top of the leaderboard.

Here are a few things to consider about the Democratic electorate in Oklahoma: 41 percent identify as moderate, 37.9 percent as liberal and 21.1 percent as conservative; nearly one-in-four Democrats identify as pro-life; and, nearly one-in-four lives in the very rural 2nd congressional district known as “Little Dixie,” with 44.2 percent living in the much more urban 1st and 5th congressional districts of Tulsa and Oklahoma City.

[QUESTION] On March 3rd, Oklahoma voters will cast votes for president. If the election were TODAY and you were standing in the voting booth RIGHT NOW and had to make a choice, for whom would you vote?

1. Joe Biden 21.2%
2. Mike Bloomberg 19.8
3. Bernie Sanders 12.8
4. Pete Buttigieg 10.1
5. Elizabeth Warren 8.7
6. Amy Klobuchar 6.5
7. Tom Steyer 0.8
8. Tulsi Gabbard 0.4
9. Deval Patrick 0.3
10. UNDECIDED 19.3

These poll results, however, are measuring a race in complete flux.  Forty-three percent of Democratic primary voters reported they might or probably will change their mind before the March 3rd election.

Few candidates come to Oklahoma, a small red state on Super Tuesday, whose Democrat electorate does not look like the national Democrat profile of more liberal and far-left voters.  Additionally, little money is spent here by the presidential candidates, making Oklahoma Democrats almost solely dependent on making their vote choice from seeing television ads, watching the debates or television coverage.

What also puts Biden’s slim lead of not lasting until March 3rd is that 47.8 percent of those who said they will probably change their mind before the election are current Biden supporters. Sanders led among those voters who said they probably would NOT change their mind before election day.

[QUESTION] How certain are you about this vote choice?

1. I PROBABLY WILL change my mind before March 3rd 10.5%
2. I MIGHT change my mind before March 3rd 32.4
3. COMBINED CHANGE MIND 42.9
4. I MIGHT NOT change my mind before March 3rd 19.1
4. I PROBABLY WILL NOT change my mind before March 3rd 38.0
4. COMBINED NOT CHANGE MIND 57.1

Another interesting poll result, further demonstrating the volatility of the poll results, shows Oklahoma Democratic likely voters have changed their vote choice multiple times, with 54.1 percent having supported two or more candidates since the race began.

[QUESTION] Since the Democratic presidential race began in 2019, how many times would you say you have changed your primary vote choice, including those that have dropped out of the race?

1. I’ve supported THREE CANDIDATES OR MORE 16.1%
2. I’ve supported TWO CANDIDATES 38.0
3. I’ve only supported the same candidate since the race began 31.7
4. Currently undecided 14.2

As mentioned before, Bernie Sanders was the lead vote choice among liberal voters, but trailed in the single digits among moderate and conservative voters that, together make up 62.1 percent of Democrat electorate.

It has been reported that some Democratic insiders fear that, with Bernie Sanders as the nominee, some Democratic voters will not support him in November against Trump given his far-left socialist views, and these Oklahoma poll results seem to support that conclusion with Democrats losing in upwards of 28 percent of their base in Oklahoma if Sanders is the nominee.

[QUESTION] If the eventual Democratic nominee is BERNIE SANDERS, a self-described Democratic Socialist, what will you probably do?

1. I will vote for Bernie Sanders in the general election against Trump 71.7%
2. I will vote for Donald Trump 14.0
3. I won’t vote at all 3.9
4. Unsure 10.4

However, Sanders supporters are very loyal to Bernie Sanders, many believing he was robbed of the nomination in 2016 by Hillary Clinton and the national party. Additional poll results also indicate that Oklahoma Sanders supporters may also vote for Trump or stay at home if Sanders is not the nominee this year, furthering speculation that Trump could be reelected from a divided Democrat electorate in November.

[QUESTION] If the eventual Democratic nominee is someone OTHER THAN Bernie Sanders, what will you probably do?

1. I will vote for VOTE FOR THEM in the general election against Trump 77.7%
2. I will vote for Donald Trump 12.7
3. I won’t vote at all 2.3
4. Unsure 7.3

Bloomberg was the lead vote choice among those in the 1st congressional district, which is pre-dominantly the city of Tulsa and it’s surrounding suburbs.

Interestingly, Elizabeth Warren was the ever-slight leader in vote choice of those in the 5th congressional district, which is Oklahoma City and its surrounding suburbs. Warren graduated from high school in Oklahoma City, however her Oklahoma roots seem to have failed to sway more Oklahoma voters her way.

Biden led by a considerable amount among the more rural Democratic voters of “Little Dixie.” This 2nd congressional district was also the one to be the most undecided than the other four districts at 25 percent.

It is also worth noting that nearly half, 43.7 percent, of conservative Democrats were undecided, further demonstrating the movement of the national Democratic Party and the presidential candidates toward more far-left or socialist ideas is further alienating conservative voters.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters who would be voting in the Democratic Presidential Primary.  The poll was commissioned by News9 and Newson6 in Tulsa.

The scientific study was conducted from February 17-21, 2020 with 409 likely Democratic Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus SoonerPoll’s proprietary online panel. Cell phones were hand dialed by live interviewers, and landline responses were collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system.

The sample was weighted by age, political party, gender, and congressional district in order to reflect the Democratic electorate from the 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’  The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 4.84 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

Likely voting Oklahomans divided over tribal gaming revenue payments to state

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It’s been 15 years since tribes were given exclusivity to engage in casino-style gaming in the state, and the governor and tribal leaders have been discussing its renewal, including the amount that tribes should pay to the state for this exclusivity.

According to the latest SoonerPoll Quarterly, likely voting Oklahomans are divided on whether the current amounts being paid are more than they should, less than they should, or just the right amount. A plurality believe the tribes are paying less than they should to the state that goes toward education and state agencies.

One-in-ten voters believe the tribes are paying more than they should, and just under one-in-four do not know anything about it or have an opinion. Only 27 percent felt the tribes were paying just the right amount.

[QUESTION] Thinking about the monies paid to the state of Oklahoma from Indian tribes that engage in gambling activities in the state, would you say the tribes are:

1. Paying MORE than they should 10.6%
2. Paying JUST THE RIGHT AMOUNT 27.0
3. Paying LESS than they should 38.3
4. Don’t know/Refused 24.1

A majority of Republicans, 52 percent, believe tribes are paying less than they should, but Democrats and Independents were much more divided on the issue. Thirty-four percent (34.3) of Democrats felt tribes were paying just the right amount and 23.8 percent believed tribes were paying less than they should.  Independents were the ones least likely to have an opinion at 35 percent, but 23.1 percent believed tribes were paying the right amount and 27.4 percent felt they were paying less than they should.

There were no significant differences observed when looking at the results broken down by other key demographic subsets such as education, age, income, sex or race.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll.

The scientific study was conducted from December 4-12, 2019 with 310 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus SoonerPoll’s proprietary online panel. The sample was weighted by age, political party, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a primary election. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 5.57 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

Majority of Oklahoma voters oppose impeachment, few minds have changed during process

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A majority of likely voting Oklahomans oppose the impeachment and removal of the president, according to the latest SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll, and the results fall almost entirely on party lines. Still, those that “strongly” oppose impeachment and removal is 20 points greater than those that “strongly” support it.

Eightly-three percent (83.4%) of Republicans strongly oppose the impeachment and removal, whereas 60.9 percent of Democrats strongly support. Another 13.4 percent somewhat support.

Among Independents, 55.6 percent strongly support impeachment and removal, which is 21 points greater than the 34.1 percent who strongly oppose it.  Independents were also the most likely to be undecided, but not by much.

[QUESTION] Do you SUPPORT or OPPOSE the impeachment and removal of President Donald Trump from office?

1. Strongly support 31.3%
2. Somewhat support 6.8
COMBINED SUPPORT 38.1
3. No opinion/Don’t know/Refused [DNR] 6.0
4. Somewhat oppose 4.1
5. Strongly oppose 51.8
COMBINED OPPOSE 55.9

Seventy-six percent (76.6%) of self-identified liberals strongly supported impeachment and removal, whereas 80.3 percent of self-identified conservatives opposed it. Those that identify as moderates, however, were more equally split with 36.8 percent strongly supporting impeachment and removal and 39.2 percent strongly opposing it.

Forty-four percent of likely voters said they were paying a lot of attention to the impeachment hearings and coverage, with another 30.7 percent saying they were paying some attention. Additional results indicate that a plurality, 33.1 percent, were getting their news from cable news networks, and another 18.8 percent from the network television channels of ABC, CBS and NBC.

Interestingly, strong support or opposition is closely divided among those who report that they are paying a lot of attention to the impeachment hearings, 48.9 percent for in strong support and 43.4 percent of those in strong opposition. But, those paying less attention — either some, a little or not at all — are much more likely to strongly oppose impeachment and removal. Among those paying some attention, 58.2 percent strongly opposed compared to 18.2 percent strongly in support; 60.5 percent of those paying little attention strongly opposed compared to 13.1 percent who strongly supported it; and 56.1 percent strongly opposed compared to 18.5 percent who strongly supported it among those not paying any attention at all.  The amount of those who didn’t know or were undecided increased as the amount of attention paid decreased.

Many political analysts have argued that the Democrats have pursued impeachment in order to galvanize their own base going into next year’s elections and persuade moderate voters to join their cause.  These poll results show the former may be happening but the latter is not. Just over half, 51.2 percent, of Democrats reported paying a lot of attention to the impeachment hearings, compared to only 36.7 percent of Republicans. Sixty-two percent (62.2) of Independents said they were paying a lot of attention.

Nonetheless, the impeachment hearings are changing very few minds. Half of the electorate is still voting for Trump, which is the same amount when this was asked of likely voters back in July. Then, 49.8 percent reported they were voting for Trump, 32.4 percent said they were voting for the eventual Democratic nominee, and 17.8 percent were undecided.

[QUESTION] From what you have seen, read or heard about the impeachment hearings, have you changed your mind about next year’s presidential election?

1. No, I’m still voting for Trump 50.0%
2. No, I’m still voting for the eventual Democratic nominee 31.6
3. No, I’m still undecided 14.4
4. Yes, I plan on voting for Trump where I was undecided or planning on voting for the Democratic nominee before 0.8
5. Yes, I plan on voting for the Democratic nominee where I was undecided or planning on voting for Trump before 3.1

Eighty-two percent (82.3) of Republicans said they were still voting for Trump, whereas 66.1 percent of Democrats said they were still voting for the eventual Democratic nominee. Among Democrats, 16.4 percent said they were still voting for Trump.

With Independents, 19.5 percent said they were still voting for Trump and 36.8 percent said they were still voting for the eventual Democratic nominee. Just about a third, 32.6 percent, were still undecided.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll.

The scientific study was conducted from December 4-12, 2019 with 310 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus SoonerPoll’s proprietary online panel. The sample was weighted by age, political party, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a primary election. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 5.57 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

News9: Exclusive MAPS4 poll shows voters ready to approve

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By Karl Torp, News 9
Exclusive News 9 polling shows victory for the MAPS 4 penny sales tax is likely December 10.

CLICK HERE: to download the complete toplines and crosstabs

According to the News 9 poll, using Sooner Poll, MAPS 4 has 72.7% support.

Of the 401 registered voters questioned 19.9% strongly or somewhat oppose MAPS 4 and 7.5% of those polled don’t know.

Projects like the mental health crisis center, youth centers, wellness centers, and a new home for Palomar, which helps victims of domestic abuse, all have well over 80% support.

“I think the mayor and city leadership, early on, keyed in that people want MAPS for people and not MAPS of projects,” said Sooner Poll CEO Bill Shapard.

The $37 million multi-use stadium has 60% support according to the poll results.

The MAPS 4 project with the least support is the $115 million renovation to Chesapeake Energy Arena that polled at 58% support.

“There is no poison pill,” said Shapard about possible projects that could potentially doom the MAPS 4 vote.

[QUESTION] On December 10th, Oklahoma City voters will go to the polls and vote on a package of projects in the MAPS4 special election. Based on what you know right now, do you SUPPORT or OPPOSE a continuation of the MAPS4 temporary sales tax?

1. Strongly support 49.3%
2. Somewhat support 23.4
COMBINED SUPPORT 72.7
3. No opinion/Don’t know/Refused [DNR] 7.5
4. Somewhat oppose 7.7
5. Strongly oppose 12.1
COMBINED OPPOSE 19.8

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma City likely voters.

The scientific study was conducted from November 11-25, 2019 with 401 likely Oklahoma City voters selected at random from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus SoonerPoll’s proprietary online panel. The sample was weighted by age and political party in order to reflect the Oklahoma City likely voter population for a special election. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’

The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 4.88 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

Tulsa voters not so keen on proposed Office of Independent Monitor when they find out more about the issue

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According to a quick flash poll over the weekend, a majority of likely voters in the city of Tulsa oppose the creation of a new Office of Independent Monitor in the Tulsa city government once they are given more information about how it will be created, the education of those staffing it, and how costly and duplicative it will be.

DOWNLOAD COMPLETE RESULTS: TOPLINES AND CROSSTABS

When first asked about its creation, 52.5 percent supported the idea. It should be noted however that when the question was asked, only 52.2 percent were familiar with the idea previously, of which only 13.5 percent said they were very familiar.

Once poll respondents were given more information about the proposed idea, support drops to 43.7 percent and then to 31.8 percent after a series of five more informative questions.

“Supporters of this new bureaucracy are preying upon the uninformed voter in order to find a majority of support,” said Bill Shapard, CEO of SoonerPoll.com. “They’ve positioned this issue as ‘oversight’ and ‘community outreach,’ and who wouldn’t be for that?  But, it’s more than that.”

[QUESTION] Based on everything you now know about the proposed creation of an Office of Independent Monitor, do you SUPPORT or OPPOSE the creation of this new city government office?

1. Strongly support 12.8%
2. Somewhat support 19.0
COMBINED SUPPORT 31.8
3. No opinion/Don’t know/Refused [DNR] 14.4
4. Somewhat oppose 17.1
5. Strongly oppose 36.7
COMBINED OPPOSE 53.8

Support for the proposed new Office of Independent Monitor falls to its lowest level when voters are told that the office would prohibit those with professional law enforcement training, education or experience from serving in the office.

While Democrats were more likely throughout the poll to support the proposed office, strong support fell from 47.4 percent to 26.7 percent by the end of the poll. Nearly half, 48.7 percent, of Republicans ‘strongly opposed’ the proposed new layer of city government. A combined 70.5 percent of Republicans were opposed.

Favorability of the Tulsa Police Department was also asked of poll respondents. TPD’s combined favorability was 84.6 percent, which was more than ten points higher than the mayor and more than 20 points higher than the city council. Favorability was the highest among Republicans with 92.5 percent, but even 73.9 percent of Democrats had a favorable view of the Tulsa Police.

“It’s almost as if a small angry minority of individuals unhappy with the police have a solution, yet are still in search of a problem,” said Shapard.

The Tulsa Police Internal Affairs Department, which is a department of trained police officers that are in charge of overseeing and investigating the professional misconduct of police officers, also received high marks.

A combined 54.7 percent said the Internal Affairs Department was doing an above average job. Another 28.3 percent said they were doing an average job, and only 9.3 percent said they were doing a below average job in overseeing Tulsa police officers.

Nearly 85 percent of white poll respondents felt the Internal Affairs Department was doing an average or better job, as well as 68.4 percent of African American poll respondents.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, conducted the poll of Oklahoma likely voters, which was commissioned by The Tulsa Fraternal Order of Police although the polling questions were written by SoonerPoll staff.

The scientific study was conducted September 7-8, 2019 with 320 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random in the city of Tulsa and conducted using IVR (Interactive Voice Response) technology of landline phones. The sample was weighted by age, political party and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a general election in the city of Tulsa.

The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 5.41 percentage points.

Stitt’s favorability is high, considering the current political climate.

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Governor Kevin Stitt finds himself today with about two out of every three Oklahoma likely voters having a favorable opinion of him. And, while former Republican governors in this very Republican state have had higher favorables, he might want to take his 66.5 percent favorable as a good report card considering the current political climate.

A lot can change in just six years.

In September of 2013, Oklahoma had a Republican governor at 73 percent favorable and a Democratic president with less than 30 percent favorable rating.

Now, we have the Republican governor at just 66.5 percent favorable and a Republican president at 58.3 percent. No doubt Oklahoma is still a red state and usually like its Republicans leaders, but the age of Trump has depressed those high marks for sure.

[QUESTION] Now, I’m going to read to you a list of individuals or organizations. For each one, please tell me if you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE. If you don’t know them or have an opinion, just let me know.  KEVIN STITT

1. Very favorable 30.0%
2. Somewhat favorable 36.5
COMBINED FAVORABLE 66.5
3. No opinion/Don’t know/Refused [DNR] 16.6
4. Somewhat unfavorable 10.1
5. Very unfavorable 6.8
COMBINED UNFAVORABLE 16.9

“Stitt is doing pretty good just seven months in,” said Bill Shapard, CEO of SoonerPoll.com, who went on to note that Stitt had to follow one of the most unpopular governors in Oklahoma in modern political history from his own party.

“That, first in and of itself, was not an easy feat. He certainly could add to his favorability over time, but there will be several things that may be weighing on his ratings and one of those is next year’s presidential election.”

Stitt has the favorability of a whooping 87.3 percent of Republicans and a plurality 45.4 percent of Democrats.  Independents are less favorable towards Stitt with only 36.3 percent and 41.9 percent with an unfavorable opinion of him, yet only make up less than eight percent of the electorate.

Among conservatives, Stitt has a 85.9 percent favorable rating and nearly half of moderates at 49.9 percent. Even those that consider themselves liberal in their political views are willing to give him shot with 33.4 percent favorable. Another 21.8 percent had no opinion at this time.

“Some of these numbers could go south on Stitt also because of Medicaid expansion and how he handles it,” said Shapard.

Medicaid expansion is supported by a majority of likely voters and just about half of Republican voters with an opinion on the issue.

“Many are waiting to see,” said Shapard, who noted that 24.3 percent of Democrats had no opinion of Stitt as this time and neither did 21.8 percent of Independents.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll.

The scientific study was conducted from July 17-27, 2019 with 373 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus SoonerPoll’s proprietary online panel. The sample was weighted by age, political party and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a primary election. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 5.07 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

Trump’s favorability among Oklahomans is steady, but the polarization grows.

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For a man who up until the White House had never held public office before, Donald Trump knows how to grow his base, but he also knows how to grow his opposition as well.

In the latest SoonerPoll Quarterly of likely Oklahoma voters, Trump’s overall favorability remains relatively unchanged at 58.3 percent. In comparison, last September 59.2 percent viewed him favorable.

The movement, however, under those surface numbers is more telling.

Last September, 38.6 percent were very favorable toward him. Now, it’s 41 percent.  Then, 31.8 percent were very unfavorable toward him. Now, it’s 33.1 percent.

[QUESTION] Now, I’m going to read to you a list of individuals or organizations. For each one, please tell me if you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE. If you don’t know them or have an opinion, just let me know.  DONALD TRUMP

1. Very favorable 41.0%
2. Somewhat favorable 17.3
COMBINED FAVORABLE 58.3
3. No opinion/Don’t know/Refused [DNR] 2.4
4. Somewhat unfavorable 6.2
5. Very unfavorable 33.1
COMBINED UNFAVORABLE 39.3

Among Republicans, Trump had a combined favorable rating of 85.1 percent last September. Now, it’s 87.5 percent. Among Democrats, Trump was seen favorable last September by 32.1 percent. Now, it’s 27.4 percent.

Oklahoma’s electoral votes next year do not appear in jeopardy for Republicans as the state continues to see the red rural areas overpower the growing blue urban areas. But, the question remains, is the loss of appeal among urban voters for Trump going to continue to hurt Republicans’ state senate and house chances?

So far, it doesn’t look like Trump is doing any favors for Oklahoma Republicans, who would like to win back an Oklahoma City congressional seat in 2020 and several Republican-majority senate and house seats that were lost in 2018.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll.

The scientific study was conducted from July 17-27, 2019 with 373 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus SoonerPoll’s proprietary online panel. The sample was weighted by age, political party and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a primary election. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 5.07 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

Medicaid expansion supported by majority of Oklahoma likely voters

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As supporters are cleared to begin collecting signatures to put Medicaid expansion on an upcoming ballot, the most recent SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll shows a majority of likely voting Oklahomans support it.

Support was extremely high with Democrats, where 57.9 percent strongly supported it and another 17.3 percent somewhat supported it, yielding a combined 75.2 percent in support. Contrast this with Republican support, 19.0 strongly supported Medicaid’s expansion in the state and another 20.8 percent somewhat supported it. While a plurality of Republicans opposed it with 41.6 percent, the level of support among Republicans was close with 39.8 percent.

While Republicans were split on the matter, Independents also supported Medicaid expansion by a large margin with 53.8 percent strongly supporting it and another 11.2 percent somewhat supporting it.

[QUESTION] Do you SUPPORT or OPPOSE the expansion of Medicaid in the state of Oklahoma?

1. Strongly support 37.8%
2. Somewhat support 18.5
COMBINED SUPPORT 56.3
3. No opinion/Don’t know/Refused [DNR] 16.0
4. Somewhat oppose 10.5
5. Strongly oppose 17.2
COMBINED OPPOSE 27.7

As expected, self-identified liberal voters were heavily supportive with 89.9 percent strongly in support and another 5.8 percent were in somewhat support.

Self-identified conservatives were more opposed than in support of the measure. Forty-six percent opposed it and 32.6 percent supported it. Interestingly, one-in-five conservatives were undecided on the issue, the largest amount among any of the ideological subsets. Moderates supported it 78.6 percent to only 10.9 percent that opposed it.

It should be noted as well that, among those who had a favorable opinion of Governor Stitt, 43.6 percent supported Medicaid expansion in the state; only 37.7 percent opposed it.

No significant differences among subsets in age, education, race or household income were observed.

While a slim majority of men supported Medicaid expansion in the state at 51.9 percent, women were nearly 15 points more likely to support it.

Lastly, the poll also asked the same question of support or oppose Medicaid expansion while providing the poll respondent with additional information, noting the incomes of those that would qualify for Medicaid and the cost to the state government for its portion of the overall cost.

The question produced little difference in overall result compared to the first question outlined above. Combined support for Medicaid expansion was 55.7 percent, compared to 56.3 percent for the initial question. Those undecided did drop when more information was provided, from 16 percent to 9.6 percent.  Those opposed rose from 27.7 percent to 34.8 percent.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll.

The scientific study was conducted from July 17-27, 2019 with 373 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus SoonerPoll’s proprietary online panel. The sample was weighted by age, political party and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a primary election. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 5.07 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

Poll: What projects do OKC voters want in MAPS4? The results may surprise you.

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Since nearly 62 percent of special-election, likely voting Oklahoma City residents support a continuation of the MAPS 1-cent sales tax that will probably be on the ballot late this year, the real question has been what types of projects do voters want.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE COMPLETE REPORT

Those leading the charge for a professional soccer stadium will be disappointed in the results since a proposed $70-90 million downtown stadium was the least popular of all of the projects that were tested.

Surprisingly, the most popular project was one far less glitzy than convention centers and soccer stadiums: mental health and substance abuse facilities. The results should not be totally unexpected as recent media reports have shown that the county jail’s biggest problems are dealing with mental health and substance abuse issues.

In 2016, voters passed criminal justice reforms, making some non-violent felonies into misdemeanors, but has not dealt with the potential untreated mental health and substance abuse issues.

“Voters may want to see the MAPS invested in mental health and substance abuse facilities because they’re not seeing anything being done to solve the problems at the Oklahoma County Jail,” said Bill Shapard, CEO of the SoonerPoll.

[QUESTION] Now, I’m going to read to you several projects for a MAPS4 continuation of the MAPS sales tax. For each one, please tell me whether you SUPPORT or OPPOSE that particular project being included in a MAPS4 bundle of projects. 

Mental health and substance abuse facilities.

1. Strongly support 62.3%
2. Somewhat support 20.9
COMBINED SUPPORT 83.2
3. No opinion/Don’t know/Refused [DNR] 4.1
4. Somewhat oppose 5.3
5. Strongly oppose 7.4
COMBINED OPPOSE 12.7

Investments in city parks with restroom facilities and athletic complexes and equipment for children and adults was the next most popular project among those offered to poll respondents.

“In speaking with city staff over the years, my understanding is that the most common request of city residents to our parks department is to address restroom facilities which are only present in one percent of city parks,” said former city councilor Ed Shadid.

Establishing protected bike lanes and improvements to the bus system, including new buses and bus shelters, were the next two most popular projects.

Also receiving majority support was a fund to help bridge the gap in financing historic preservation projects.

The poll results also showed that voters, by a wide margin, want to vote for each of the proposed MAPS projects separately rather than in a package as an all or nothing vote.  Seventy-nine percent favored the up or down on each proposed project on the ballot and only 16.3 percent wanted a package of projects.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, conducted the poll and it was commissioned by former city councilor Ed Shadid.

The scientific study was conducted from April 24 – May 9, 2019 with 406 likely voters selected at random in the city of Oklahoma City from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus SoonerPoll’s proprietary online panel. The sample was weighted by age and congressional district in order to reflect the likely voter population of Oklahoma City for a special election. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of Oklahoma City likely voters. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 4.85 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.