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Oklahoma City voters want some of the MAPS4 tax spent on operations and maintenance of city park and transit

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Oklahoma City voters like the MAPS sales taxes and the projects that are making a positive impact on the city, but according to the latest poll, voters want to see the upcoming MAPS4 monies also spent on the operations and maintenance of these capital projects, as well as city parks and the city transit system.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE COMPLETE REPORT

Fifty-seven percent of likely special-election city voters supported operations and maintenances costs being included in any future MAPS4 proposal, including 57.3 percent of Republicans and 61.7 percent of Independents.

When asked how any MAPS4 monies should be spent a few questions later in the survey, nearly half (47.9 percent) wanted at least half spent on the operations and maintenance of the MAPS projects like the new Scissortail Park and the downtown streetcar. Another 21.6 percent wanted to spend a quarter of new monies on operations and maintenance, meaning 69.5 percent of city likely voters want to spend a quarter or more of any future MAPS4 monies on operations and maintenance.

Only 13.9 percent wanted to spend the full MAPS penny on new capital projects only.

“While the public is clearly in the mood to provide improvements in parks, transit, mental health, homelessness and biking infrastructure,” said former city councilor Ed Shadid upon reviewing the poll results, “they also overwhelming seem to realize that it is financially irresponsible to build things without having a funding source to provide for the operations and maintenance of those investments.”

[QUESTION] In the MAPS3 program, the roughly $800 million collected from the 1-cent sales tax has gone towards building things or capital spending with none of the money dedicated towards operations and maintenance costs. Once the MAPS3 projects are built, the new operations and maintenance costs are almost exclusively paid from the city’s existing general budget. For example, the streetcar costs are approximately $3 million per year to operate and the new downtown park will cost $3-4 million per year to operate. Knowing this, do you SUPPORT or OPPOSE reserving a portion of the 1-cent MAPS tax to pay operations and maintenance costs?

1. Strongly support 33.8%
2. Somewhat support 23.3
COMBINED SUPPORT 57.1
3. No opinion/Don’t know/Refused [DNR] 9.2
4. Somewhat oppose 12.2
5. Strongly oppose 21.5
COMBINED OPPOSE 33.7

When likely voters were asked about increased funding for city parks and transit system, a large majority supported monies being spent to not only operate and maintain these city resources but also to improve facilities and increased transit hours and amenities.

Sixty-nine percent of likely voters supported a 1/8-cent sales tax for city park operations with the addition of better restrooms, and activities for children and adults including athletic complexes.  Nearly sixty percent supported a 1/8-cent sales tax in the operations and maintenance of the city transit system, including greater frequency of service, expanded hours to include evenings and weekends, and quality bus shelters.

When voters were informed that Oklahoma City spends 28 percent of what a typical midwestern city spends on park maintenance, including the city’s low ranking among other cities, 59.6 percent were more likely to support a 1/8-cent sale tax for the city’s parks.

Also, once likely voters were informed that the new Scissortail Park would cost 3-4 million dollars to operate and maintain, and that these monies would have to come out of an already overburdened parks budget that struggles to maintain the current 6,000 acres of parks throughout the city’s neighborhoods, 57.9 percent were more likely to support a 1/8-cent dedicated funding source for the city’s parks.

An even greater amount, 64 percent, were also more likely to support a portion of the MAPS4 monies on the city’s public transit system once learning that Oklahoma City was the largest city in America, during the MAPS3 funding, without public bus transportation on Sundays and in the evenings.

Former city councilors Sam Bowman and Pete White also had a chance to comment on the poll results.

“Efforts made in previous years at improving public transit in OKC through improving frequency and routes of our bus system has been too slow,” Bowman said. “We are losing time and getting further and further behind; change has been too graduated and having a dedicated funding source for transit operations will get us there.”

“The poll results confirm my long held belief that the most transformative project that OKC can undertake is ‘Big League’ attention to existing OKC parks,” said White. “Quality maintenance and programming in our parks is essential to the quality of life the citizens of OKC want and deserve.”

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, conducted the poll and it was commissioned by former city councilor Ed Shadid.

The scientific study was conducted from April 24 – May 9, 2019 with 406 likely voters selected at random in the city of Oklahoma City from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus SoonerPoll’s proprietary online panel. The sample was weighted by age and congressional district in order to reflect the likely voter population of Oklahoma City for a special election. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of Oklahoma City likely voters. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 4.85 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

Allowing Oklahomans to live independently in their home has high support in recent poll

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Oklahoma likely voters support legislation if it means helping some Oklahomans live in their own homes as opposed to a nursing home, according to the last SoonerPoll Quarterly.

Slightly more than half strongly supported the required legislation to better implement these alternatives.  Another 34.7 percent somewhat supported them.

[QUESTION] The state and federal governments pay the full cost of care for the majority of nursing home patients. There are often less costly alternatives to nursing home stays, such as programs that allow Oklahomans to live independently in their own home, but would require legislative action to better implement these alternatives.  Would you SUPPORT or OPPOSE legislation that encouraged better implementation of these less costly alternatives?

1. Strongly support 51.3%
2. Somewhat support 34.7
COMBINED SUPPORT 86.0
3. No opinion/Don’t know/Refused [DNR] 8.7
4. Somewhat oppose 3.9
5. Strongly oppose 1.4
COMBINED OPPOSE 5.3

The idea has broad-based support throughout the poll results.

Among Republicans, 47.7 percent strongly support the legislation and another 36.7 percent somewhat supported it. Strong support was slightly higher with Democrats and Independents with 54.8 percent of Democrats and 56.1 percent of Independents.

Support was also strong all along the ideological spectrum with 86.9 percent of liberals in support, 88.9 percent of moderates and 85.1 percent of conservatives.

Strong support was also observed among voters with all levels of education, age, and  income.

Respondents in the poll were also asked if they supported or opposed antipsychotic medications being dispensed to nursing home residents without a psychiatric diagnosis. Nearly three fourths, or 74.4 percent, of likely voting Oklahomans supported legislation that would require nursing home patients to first have a psychiatric diagnosis before receiving antipsychotic medications.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll, and were commissioned by the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP).

The scientific study was conducted from December 17-28, 2018 with 400 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus SoonerPoll’s proprietary online panel. The sample was weighted by age, political party, sex and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a primary election. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 4.9 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

Homebuyer savings accounts very popular with Oklahoma voters, particularly those younger

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In an effort to make home ownership feasible for more Oklahomans, Homebuyer Savings Accounts have become popular in others states, and Oklahoma voters strongly support them according to the most recent SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll.

Over eighty percent of likely voting Oklahomans support legislation that would create homebuyer savings accounts, where perspective homebuyers could save monies to be used for a down payment or closing costs, receiving a state income tax deduction on any gains.

[QUESTION]A homebuyer’s savings account allows individuals or couples to save money in a dedicated savings account that can be used for a down payment and closing costs toward the purchase of a future home. Parents and grandparents can also contribute to the savings account. Those that contribute receive a state income tax deduction on interest gains. Knowing this, would you SUPPORT or OPPOSE legislation that create homebuyer savings accounts?

1. Strongly support 41.8%
2. Somewhat support 38.5
COMBINED SUPPORT 80.3
3. No opinion/Don’t know/Refused [DNR] 9.4
4. Somewhat oppose 6.3
5. Strongly oppose 4.0
COMBINED OPPOSE 10.3

Also in the poll, 45 percent of Oklahomans identified affordability or adequate income as the biggest obstacle right now them in buying a new home.  Another 26 percent said they couldn’t afford the down payment, which was the second biggest obstacle.

Of those age 25 to 34, 36 percent said they couldn’t afford the down payment, and 40 percent of those age 35 to 44 said they couldn’t as well. This was the top issue for those under the age of 44 who are those mostly likely needing to buy a new home.

“We need to help young Oklahomans to be able to buy a home,” said Jessica Hickok, Chief Executive Officer of the Oklahoma Association of Realtors©, “and homebuyer savings accounts are a great way to solve this problem.”

Nearly four in ten poll respondents between the ages of 25 and 34 said they would be likely to take advantage of a homebuyer savings account if they could, and an overwhelming 73 percent of those between the ages of 35 and 44 said they were as well.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll, and were commissioned by the Oklahoma Association of Realtors.

The scientific study was conducted from December 17-28, 2018 with 400 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus SoonerPoll’s proprietary online panel. The sample was weighted by age, political party, sex and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a primary election. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 4.9 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

Buying prescription drugs from Canada? Now, more Oklahomans support it.

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The idea of buying prescription drugs from Canada has been discussed for a long time, but still Oklahomans are not legally able.  SoonerPoll tested the idea just last year, and now — according to the most recent SoonerPoll Quarterly — even more Oklahomans support measure than last year.

About this same time last year, 70 percent supported the idea of legally purchasing prescription drugs from Canada. Now, over 75 percent do.

[QUESTION] Currently, US law bans people from buying most prescription drugs from Canada. Some people believe that the laws should be changed to allow Americans to buy prescription drugs from Canada as long as they are just as safe and effective as those bought in the U.S. Knowing this, do you SUPPORT or OPPOSE state legislation that would allow the purchase of prescription drugs from Canada?

1. Strongly support 45.6%
2. Somewhat support 30.1
COMBINED SUPPORT 75.7
3. No opinion/Don’t know/Refused [DNR] 11.5
4. Somewhat oppose 5.6
5. Strongly oppose 7.2
COMBINED OPPOSE 12.8

There is no divide among Oklahoma likely voters on this issue, as Republicans and Democrats, liberals and conservatives, and the young and old all support the measure.

Seventy-seven percent of Republicans support it, as well as 76.3 percent of Democrats and 58.1 percent of Independents.

Eighty-seven percent of liberals support it, as well as 73.4 percent of conservatives and 77 percent of Independents.

Seventy-six percent of likely voters with just a high school degree supported it, just as 78.6 percent of likely voters with a post graduate degree.

Youngers voter were more likely to not have an opinion on the idea in comparison to older voters, but still 61 percent of those under the age of 34 supported the legal purchase of prescription drugs from Canada. Seventy-eight percent of those over the age of 65 supported it.

No significant opposition was observed in any other demographic group.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll, and were commissioned by the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP).

The scientific study was conducted from December 17-28, 2018 with 400 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus SoonerPoll’s proprietary online panel. The sample was weighted by age, political party, sex and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a primary election. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 4.9 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

Oklahomans see nurse practitioners as strong option to address potential primary care physician shortage

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It’s been suggested that Oklahoma could be facing a primary care physician shortage, particularly in rural areas. One possible solution currently being utilized in other states is the use of nurse practitioners (NPs) as a patient’s primary care provider as more and more graduating doctors specialize in more advanced areas of medicine.

Over 80 percent of likely voting Oklahomans support this solution, according to the most recent SoonerPoll Quarterly.

[QUESTION] Healthcare experts estimate that by 2025, there will not be enough primary care providers to handle the increasing number of patients who are seeking routine healthcare services, especially in rural Oklahoma. Twenty-three (23) states have passed a proposal that would allow nurse practitioners—registered nurses with advanced training who often visit older people in their homes—to serve as the primary or acute care providers of record for a patient. Knowing this, do you SUPPORT or OPPOSE allowing nurse practitioners serving as primary care providers?

1. Strongly support 40.9%
2. Somewhat support 39.3
COMBINED SUPPORT 80.2
3. No opinion/Don’t know/Refused [DNR] 8.8
4. Somewhat oppose 6.3
5. Strongly oppose 4.7
COMBINED OPPOSE 11.0

The idea has broad-based support throughout the poll results.

Among Republicans, 82.4 percent support NPs acting as primary care providers, as do 78.6 percent of Democrats. Seventy-four percent of Independents supported it as well.

Support was also strong all along the ideological spectrum with 76.8 percent of liberals in support, 83.3 percent of Independents and 81.1 percent of conservatives.

Strong support was also observed among voters with all levels of education, age, and  income.

Eighty percent of men supported the measure and 79.1 percent of women.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll, and were commissioned by the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP).

The scientific study was conducted from December 17-28, 2018 with 400 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus SoonerPoll’s proprietary online panel. The sample was weighted by age, political party, sex and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a primary election. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 4.9 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll’s Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

Oklahoma Teachers favor Drew Edmondson 3-to-1 over Kevin Stitt in governor’s race

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If this election was just teachers voting only, Edmondson would win by a mile. In a scientific online survey of Oklahoma teachers, chosen at random throughout the state, 63.7 percent would be voting for Edmondson and 21.6 percent for Stitt.

[QUESTION] If the November general election for governor was today and you were standing in the voting booth right now, for whom would you vote? [READ IN ROTATED ORDER]

1. Drew Edmondson, the Democrat 63.7%
2. Kevin Stitt, the Republican 21.6
2. Chris Powell, the Libertarian 3.9
3. Undecided/not sure [DNR] 10.8

In a follow-up question as to why those were voting for Edmondson, “his stance on education” and he is “for the teachers” was 62.5 percent of the responses. For those voting for Stitt, “he is not a career politician” was the number one response with 26.1 percent.

Governor Mary Fallin also didn’t fair well with teachers, as an overwhelming 87.3 percent had an unfavorable opinion of her, with 66.7 percent saying “very unfavorable.”

President Donald Trump faired better with half favorable and the other half unfavorable, and favorability of the two gubernatorial candidates mirrored fairly closely the election ballot choice.

Teachers also believed Oklahoma was going in the wrong direction with 62.7 percent, where other polling of likely voters is 56.1 percent.

If should be noted that this sample of teachers was 53.9 percent Republican and 40.2 percent Democratic, which is very close to the overall turnout on Election Day of all voters. In other analysis, these percentages are similar to the overall breakdown of teachers by party affiliation.

Forty-three percent of Republican teachers told us they were voting for Edmondson and only 2.4 percent of Democratic teachers were voting for Stitt.

Fifty-eight percent of Republican teachers said they were voting for Edmondson because of his stance on education.

The news wasn’t all bad for Republicans. School Superintendent Joy Hofmeister received the support of 53.9 percent of teachers, including 41.5 percent of Democratic teachers. Thirty-one percent overall said they were voting for Democrat John Cox and 14.7 percent were undecided in the race.

Lastly, teachers did not like State Question 801, which would allow property tax funds collected at the county level to be used for in classroom needs including teacher pay. Sixty percent opposed the measure and only 32.3 percent supported it. While SQ801 is favored by 55 percent of likely voters in other polling, the school superintendents’ association has come out against the measure.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, conducted the scientific online poll of 102 Oklahoma teachers.

The study was conducted online October 29-November 2, 2018 and respondents were selected at random among those with a teaching certificate in the state of Oklahoma and registered to vote. Teachers were identified by filtering out only teachers who were currently employed, retired, or looking for a teaching position in the state.

Weighting was not required for the study as the demographical profile of the sample was very similar to the profile of all teachers in the state.

The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 9.69 percent.

Final poll before election day shows Republican Kevin Stitt with three point lead

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Republican Kevin Stitt continues to lead in the last SoonerPoll before election day, now only by three points.  The week before, he led Democrat Drew Edmondson by five points, but this poll result remains squarely within the margin of error of the poll.

While Edmondson has closed the gap by two points, it isn’t necessarily looking good for the longtime elected officeholder. When those who were still undecided in the poll were asked for which candidate they were leaning towards, Stitt and Edmondson received equal shares. However, Stitt has never made it over 50 percent in any of the three polls we’ve conducted between Stitt and Edmondson.

[QUESTION] If the November general election for governor was today and you were standing in the voting booth right now, for whom would you vote? [READ IN ROTATED ORDER]

1. Kevin Stitt, the Republican 47.0%
2. Drew Edmondson, the Democrat 44.1
2. Chris Powell, the Libertarian 2.7
3. Undecided/not sure [DNR] 6.2

Still, this race could come down to turnout. Early and absentee voting has shown Republicans at 51 percent, Democrats at 41 percent and Independents at 8 percent. This particular poll was weighted with the anticipation of a much talked about increase of Democratic turnout, with Republicans at nearly 49 percent, Democrats at near 43 percent and Independents at 8 percent. It remains to be seen whether this Democratic increase will materialize.

Some of the internal metrics improved for Stitt over last week’s poll. Favorability between the two candidates equalized, and Stitt furthered his lead among rural voters another eight points, while both remain competitive in the metro areas of Tulsa and Oklahoma City.

Stitt has increased his net party crossover advantage another near two points with a 4.7 point advantage in this poll.  This, however, is a significant turnaround from the last time the governor’s office was an open race when Mary Fallin was getting between 20 and 30 points in party crossover support.

Education is the still the leading issue for this election and Edmondson dominates among education voters, 66.8 to 21.9 percent for Stitt. But, Stitt leads among economic and social issue voters, which combined is 56.7 percent of all voters.

Women voters are typically late breakers in making their vote decisions, and women favored Edmondson in prior SoonerPolls, but Stitt made up some ground with women voters in the last week, tying Edmondson at 46 percent a piece.  Stitt’s wife, Sarah Stitt, was the feature of an television ad that started after the end of the last poll and before this one. Men still favor Stitt 48.5 to 41.1 percent for Edmondson.

Stitt is winning big with conservative voters, 76 to 15.8 percent for Edmondson, who has not been able to break into this critical share of the electorate enough, which is typically about 55 percent of voters on election day.

Stitt has also reversed a troubling trend in the last poll among voters over the age of 65. In this poll, Stitt is leading among the much coveted group — the largest single age group on election day — by six points.

As we have seen in previous SoonerPolls, Stitt does not fair well with Independents and moderate voters and this poll was no different. Edmondson led 74.2 to 22.1 percent among moderates and 72.1 to 15.3 percent among Independents.

This is a promising sign for Edmondson, but this may just not be enough. The growth of the Republican Party in the state, particularly the rural areas, may prove to be Stitt’s saving grace.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, conducted the poll of Oklahoma likely voters.

The scientific study was conducted October 31-November 3, 2018 with 338 likely voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of SoonerPoll’s own online panel, cell phones and landline telephones. For cell phone and landline telephones, voters are selected at random from SoonerPoll’s voter database and matched with cell and landline phone numbers.  Cell phone participants are collected using live interviewers and landline participants are collected using both live interviewer and IVR (Interactive Voice Response) technology. The sample was weighted by political party, age, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population.

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ±5.33 percent.

News9/Newson6 Poll: Republican Kevin Stitt leads by a “soft” five points in governor’s race

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In an exclusive poll for News9/Newson6 in Tulsa, the latest poll on Oklahoma’s governor’s race find Republican Kevin Stitt leading Democrat Drew Edmondson by five point.

CLICK HERE: For the complete toplines and crosstabs

[QUESTION] If the November general election for governor was today and you were standing in the voting booth right now, for whom would you vote? [READ IN ROTATED ORDER]

1. Kevin Stitt, the Republican 46.4%
2. Drew Edmondson, the Democrat 41.6
2. Chris Powell, the Libertarian 3.8
3. Undecided/not sure [DNR] 8.3

There are, however, some troubling results in this poll for the frontrunner.  We have detailed them here:

  1. Governor Mary Fallin has a 75 percent UNFAVORABLE rating, which is the highest we have recorded for her in the last nine years. While we cannot calculate the impact this is having on the current race, it should be noted that the remaining statewide elections show the Republican candidate with anywhere from a 12 to 29 point lead over their next challenger, meaning anywhere between 8 and 10 percent of voters are wanting a change at the top (voting for Edmondson) and voting Republican the rest of the way down the statewide ballot.
  2. Edmondson is three points MORE favorable than Stitt among all voters. Both are relatively known equally by the voters, but Edmondson leads in favorables 43.8 to 40.9 percent for Stitt. It is very rare that candidates who leads in the race are seen as LESS favorable than their opponent and this is another reason we believe this race could close in the coming days.
  3. President Donald Trump is 12 points MORE FAVORABLE among DEMOCRATS than Stitt, 25 percent to 13 percent. Our exclusive dial testing presented on SoonerPoll.com has shown that Stitt is NOT winning over Independents and leaning Democrats as much as Edmondson.
  4. 19 percent of conservatives have a favorable opinion of Edmondson. This is very problematic for Stitt who, as a conservative, wants and needs to command the support of conservatives. It also shows that Stitt and IE groups have been relatively unsuccessful in driving down Edmondson’s favorables. Calling him “DC Drew” and running pictures of Hillary Clinton next to his picture would have been much more powerful had this race happened in 2016 or Clinton had won the presidency.
  5. Edmondson is winning among moderate voters BIG TIME – 66.8 percent to only 18.3 percent for Stitt. Keep in mind, that one third of all voters on election day identify as a moderate voter. We also have seen in the dial testing that moderates and Independents are not moved by Stitt’s language of wanting to run the government like a business. It dial tests well with Republicans, but falls flat with these swing voters who might just make the difference in this election.
  6. 56 percent of women voters find Trump favorable, but only 38 percent find Stitt favorable. This is an amazing result given the current political climate. We have been saying for sometime that women would be a critical voter group in this election since education is, by far, the most important issue in the state this election. Neither Stitt nor the Republicans in general have been effective in communicating this issue and their vision for the future to voters. While it is easier for Democrats and harder for Republicans, Republicans and Stitt should have presented a comprehensive plan because without it, Democrats easily win on this issue.
  7. Voters over the age of 65, another key voter block which make up 35 to 40 percent of voters on election day, 48 percent voting for Edmondson and 44 percent for Stitt. Older voters, who typically lean the most conservative in comparison to the other age groups, typically lean Republican and Stitt has failed to capture this key demographic.
  8. Rural voters. It was anticipated that Stitt would command this demographic group given the large increases in registration that the Republican Party has had over just the last eight years. However, Stitt only has a 3.5 point lead among rural voters, up from a tie of 45/45 in our first poll in September. We believe that Stitt has believed he would do well in the rural areas given Edmondson’s prior history with chicken farmers, the Illinois watershed, and his opposition to Right To Farm, but we believe Edmondson is doing well among rural voters more on the issues of education, rural schools and healthcare. Not all rural voters are directly connected to agricultural issues or vote with agriculture. Stitt has not done enough to assure voters he will be supportive of rural schools and keeping open struggling rural hospitals.
  9. Stitt only leads in the Tulsa MSA by 1.8 points. This is not enough for him to overcome Edmondson’s strengths in other areas, and would be one of the lowest win percentages for a Republican in at least 20 years.
  10. Our poll shows Edmondson winning in two very rural congressional districts: Mullins and Lucas. Mullin’s is the old Little Dixie and a former Democratic stronghold and new Republicans there may be changing their minds about voting Republican at the top of the ticket. Lucas’ district has always been a strong rural Republican district but, again, we believe Stitt has failed to make the case to these voters on education and rural healthcare.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, conducted the poll of Oklahoma likely voters.

The scientific study was conducted October 23-25, 2018 with 447 likely voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of SoonerPoll’s own online panel, cell phones and landline telephones. For cell phone and landline telephones, voters are selected at random from SoonerPoll’s voter database and matched with cell and landline phone numbers.  Cell phone participants are collected using live interviewers and landline participants are collected using both live interviewer and IVR (Interactive Voice Response) technology. The sample was weighted by political party, age, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population.

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ±4.63 percent.

DIAL TEST: Edmondson earns high marks from women, Independents on impact of less education funding

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In order to fully understand how the two top candidates for governor this year are impacting voters, SoonerPoll.com partnered with News9/Newson6 and performed a Dial Test of the candidates speaking at the From Now On debate held Thursday, October 11th. For this video presentation, Republicans are RED, Democrats are BLUE, and Independent voters are YELLOW, women voters are PINK, and voters over the age of 65 are PURPLE.

What is a Dial Test? How it is conducted? And, how do I read/interrupt a Dial Test?

Time and time again, we see that when candidates, regardless of party, can effectively describe the problems facing our communities, they strongly connect with voters. The candidates may or may not necessarily offer real solutions to those problems they’ve described but, nevertheless, voters respond favorably to the candidate.

We see this in this particular dial test of Drew Edmondson talking the impact of less per pupil education funding that Oklahoma’s schools have faced during the state’s budget deficits of the last few years.

Edmondson begins by talking about kids dropping out of school and that schools need to make school more interesting to them. Quickly, all voters — including Republicans — respond favorably to how Edmondson describes these problems. As Edmondson begins to talk about the loss of teachers and class courses and increased class sizes due to the cuts, Independents respond the most favorable toward Edmondson, shooting to over 88 percent agreement. Even Republicans are well above the 62 percent level.

Edmondson’s remarks also appeal to women voters and those over the age of 65, who reach the near 79 percent favorable line. It should be noted that women are about 54 percent of the electorate and voters over the age of 65 are nearly 40 percent.

Edmondson then relates a story of a discussion with a school superintendent about teachers working only a four-day school week and working a part-time job on Fridays. Favorability remains high during these remarks, but all of the groups see a slight loss of intensity.  It may be due to the fact that they do not know where Edmondson is going with these thoughts, or whether he is endorsing a four-day school week or teachers working a part-time job.

All of the voters groups, however, respond with greater favorability when Edmondson says “it is shameful the way we have short changed public education.”

Voters need to see that the candidates can effective articulate the problems that our state and communities face.  From this dial test, we can see the Edmondson performs very well in the minds among a variety of important subsets of the electorate.

DIAL TEST: Stitt’s attempts to convince voters he should appoint state agency heads falls flat

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In order to fully understand how the two top candidates for governor this year are impacting voters, SoonerPoll.com partnered with News9/Newson6 and performed a Dial Test of the candidates speaking at the From Now On debate held Thursday, October 11th. For this video presentation, Republicans are RED, Democrats are BLUE, and Independent voters are YELLOW.

What is a Dial Test? How it is conducted? And, how do I read/interrupt a Dial Test?

During this campaign, Kevin Stitt was worked hard to try and convince voters that, as governor, he should be given the ability to hire and fire the head of state agencies, and that this stands in the way of getting, Medicaid monies for example, into the state’s rural hospitals and nursing homes. Unfortunately, this messaging does not move Democrat or Independent voters.

While Republicans respond favorably, Democrats and Independents may not respond as positively because the messaging is either too much “inside baseball” for most voters or they do not believe Stitt’s reasoning for the change. His ideas here might best be suited as a pursuit once elected governor, but not necessarily a message needed or used to woo more moderate voters.

Towards the end of Stitt’s remarks, he talks about what he believes is a structural or management problem standing in the way of Oklahoma becoming a top ten state. Independents fall even lower, below Democrats, as he remarks that these changes — changes in more of the fashion of how a CEO would want to run a state — would leave a lasting legacy.

Again, Stitt continues to work into his messaging his CEO background and proposed governing style that would reflect his corporate experience, but the dial test shows these messages are not moving Independent or more moderate voters toward him.