Former State Republican Party Chairman Matt Pinnell led former State Senator Anastasia Pittman by just over 18 points in the November general election match-up, according to the most recent SoonerPoll commissioned by News 9 and Newson6 in Tulsa.
Both candidates won primary challenges earlier in the year, with Pinnell winning in a run-off election in late August against Corporation Commissioner Dana Murphy.
Ivan Holmes, an independent in the race and former State Democrat Party Chairman, captured just 4.6 percent of vote in the poll.
|1. Matt Pinnell, the Republican||49.1%|
|2. Anastasia Pittman, the Democrat||31.0|
|2. Ivan Holmes, an Independent||4.6|
|3. Undecided/not sure [DNR]||15.3|
Pittman led among Democrat voters in the poll with 61.9 percent, and Pinnell led among Republicans with 82.4 percent, but Pinnell, most importantly, led in the net party crossover vote with 13.8 percent. The party crossover vote is calculated by taking the opposing party’s support for a particular candidate and subtracting from it any loss of support among the candidate’s own party to their opponent.
Pinnell led the field of Republican statewide candidates with the smallest loss of support from within his own party of only 3.4 percent. Kevin Stitt, the Republican nominee for governor for example, trailed the field with the highest loss among Republicans with 15.6 percent.
Pittman did, however, lead among self-identified moderate voters, 42.3 to 25.8 percent. Moderates make up about a third of the electorate on election day.
Pinnell led among every age group subset in the poll, as well as among high church attendance voters and evangelicals. Those who attend church weekly or more make up nearly 55 percent of all voters on election day, and evangelicals make up a near equal amount.
Pinnell also beat Pittman among men and women voters, as well as voters in Oklahoma City, Tulsa, and those in the rural parts of the state.
About the Poll
SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, conducted the poll of Oklahoma likely voters, which was commissioned by News9 and Newson6.
The scientific study was conducted September 5-10, 2018 with 407 likely voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of SoonerPoll’s own online panel, cell phones and landline telephones. For cell phone and landline telephones, voters are selected at random from SoonerPoll’s voter database and matched with cell and landline phone numbers. Cell phone participants are collected using live interviewers and landline participants are collected using both live interviewer and IVR (Interactive Voice Response) technology. The sample was weighted by age, political party, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population.
The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ±4.86 percent.