Absent any funded opposition, medicinal marijuana headed for passage

More than six-in-ten likely voting Oklahomans support allowing the use of marijuana in the state for medicinal purposes, according to the most recent SoonerPoll.  Known as State Question 788, voters will be given a chance to voice their opinion on the June primary ballot.

In September of 2013, seventy-one percent supported medicinal marijuana.

[QUESTION] In 2018, Oklahomans will have on the ballot a state question that would legalize marijuana for medical purposes ONLY.  If the election were today, would you SUPPORT or OPPOSE this state question?

1. Strongly support 44.6%
2. Somewhat support 17.2
COMBINED SUPPORT 61.8
3. Neutral/Don't know/no opinion [DNR] 7.4
4. Somewhat oppose 9.4
5. Strongly oppose 21.4
COMBINED OPPOSE 30.8

Among Democrats, 61 percent strongly supported the state question with another 13.6 percent somewhat supporting it.  With Independents, 58.3 percent strongly supported it and another 25 percent somewhat supported it.

Interestingly, a combined 48.6 percent of Republicans supported the state question, but the support was less intense with only 29.6 percent strongly supporting it and 19 percent somewhat supporting it.

As expected, support among self-identified liberal voters was high with 79.3 percent strongly supporting passage.  Forty-four percent of moderate voters strongly supported it with another 19.5 percent somewhat support.

Among conservative voters, 30 percent strongly supported it with another 18.8 percent in somewhat support -- a combined 48.8 percent in support.

"Any time the minority can get half of the majority to support their efforts, the issue will pass," said Bill Shapard, founder of the SoonerPoll, who went on to note that Republicans make up about 52 percent and conservatives are 55 percent of the electorate on election day.

There were no significant differences among urban or rural voters, levels of education, or gender.  Married voters were 20 points less likely to support it than single voters, although 54.3 percent of married voters supported it's passage.

Surprisingly, among weekly church goers, 49.8 percent supported medicinal marijuana, and 54.1 percent of those who identify as Evangelical Christians.

Further analysis shows age is a factor, as younger voters (those under 34 years of age) were almost twice as likely to support it as those 65 or older, with support gradually increasing with age.  Nearly 70 percent of voters age 25-34 strongly supported it, 49.2 percent of voters 35-44, 50.2 percent of those 45-54, 47 percent of those age 55-64, and 35.1 percent of voters 65 and older strongly supported it.

Lastly, as the level of household income increases, the intensity of strong support slightly decreases from 56.5 percent among those with $25k or less to 45 percent among households making $125k or more.  Still, 70 percent of $125k households supported the state question.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll.  The questions were commissioned by Oklahomans for Health.

The scientific study was conducted from January 4-9, 2018 with 409 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus a online panel from Research Now. The sample was weighted by age, political party, sex and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a primary election. The weighting was conducted using a 'layered technique.'

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 4.84 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll's Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.