Donald Trump is performing on the ballot right where his favorability has been for the past few years and better than candidate Trump was this time four years ago at just 50 percent, but Joe Biden is already performing better than where Hillary Clinton finished in November of 2016.

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Among all likely voting Oklahoma voters, Trump has not spent much time north of sixty percent in favorability as president the last few years. Still a great place to be, Trump’s favorability is 59 percent and at the same place on the ballot against Biden as well.

Biden, however, is polling at 35.2 percent which is nearly seven points better than where Clinton ended on election day 2016 at 29 percent. Interestingly, Biden picks right up where Barrack Obama left off in July 2016, at 35 percent favorability, and that is where he finds himself with a November match-up.

The poll results show that, in the last four years, either the candidates haven’t changed or Oklahoma hasn’t changed, or both.

[QUESTION] Now, thinking about the upcoming November general election for president, if the election were TODAY an you were standing in the voting booth right now and had to make a choice, for whom would you vote?

1. Donald Trump 59.6%
2. Joe Biden 35.2
3. Or, another candidate 1.4
4. Undecided 3.8

Republicans are overwhelmingly for their candidate, losing only 6.7 points to Biden, which shows that four years of ‘Never Trumpers’, national media bias, and impeachment have done nothing to shave off any Republican support.

Trump is also getting 21 points of Democrat support, which is a net 14.3 point crossover vote. Some of this is expected since conservative Democrats have been favoring a Republican for president since Richard Nixon in 1972, although the net crossover vote for Republicans has been falling as conservative Democrats have been changing to the Republican party over the past three decades. The once center-right Oklahoma Democratic Party is now solidly center-left.

Four years ago this month, Independent voters heavily favored Trump over Clinton, 48.1 to 26.5 percent, but now Biden is favored by 21 points, 58.4 to 37.1 percent for Trump.

Moderates also favor Biden 60 percent to Trump’s 35.6 percent. This time four years ago, Trump was at 36.6 percent.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, conducted the poll of Oklahoma likely voters for a general election.  The poll was commissioned by News9 in Oklahoma City and Newson6 in Tulsa.

The scientific study was conducted September 2-8, 2020 with 486 likely voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of SoonerPoll’s own online panel, cell phones and landline telephones. For cell phone and landline telephones, voters are selected at random from SoonerPoll’s voter database and matched with cell and landline phone numbers.  Cell phone participants are collected using live interviewers and landline participants are collected using both live interviewer and IVR (Interactive Voice Response) technology. The sample was weighted by political party, age, gender, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population.

The sample was weighted by age, race, and gender. The weighting was conducted using a ‘layered technique.’  The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ±4.45 percent.

A complete description of the methodology can be found here.  A Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be found here. A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

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Bill is the founder of SoonerPoll.com and ShapardResearch, a full service market research firm based in Oklahoma City. Bill began his career in polling after working on a major campaign in Oklahoma from 1996 until founding SoonerPoll in 2004. Under Bill’s leadership, SoonerPoll has become the leading public opinion polling company in the state of Oklahoma conducting more public opinion polls for Oklahoma news media than all other pollsters combined since 2006. Bill’s commitment to go above and beyond the AAPOR ethical guidelines of minimum disclosure ensures that SoonerPoll produces quality results every time. Bill has lectured at Oklahoma State University on developing polling methodologies, data collection processes, and advanced likely voter sampling techniques. Bill also serves as an on-air political commentator for Oklahoma television stations.

3 COMMENTS

  1. Were either of these sentences supposed to have hyperlinks attached, because they don’t link to anything?

    “A complete description of the methodology can be found here. A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.”

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